Steamspy "data" is not particularly useful, imo. Firstly, it obviously leaves out a lot of other ways in which people may be buying their games. But even taking it to represent Steam sales data is highly flawed because Steam uses ranges of sales, 200k to 500k, 2m to 5m, etc. And then people conveniently latch on to the high end of the range and claim that is the sales number. So for BG3 EA, for example, if it falls in the 2 - 5 m range, BG3 fans of course want to claim the sales figure is 5 m which is quite ridiculous. At best I would say it is likely sitting right at 2 m.
Larian allows access to the BG3 EA through GoG, Steam and Stadia. There is no other way to get it, currently. (Obviously that will change on full release, and additional platforms are likely).
Solasta sells their finished game through Steam, GoG, Gamesplanet, Microsoft Store and Humble Bundle.
The bulk of sales will be from Steam for both.
In terms of how many people signed up for the BG3 EA I think 2 Million is a safe number.
In terms of Solasta I am hoping that the number is 500k but you are right (or according to your logic) it could be as low as 200k. Which would mean 5 Million profit on a 250k investment. Still good but less promising.
There are no absolutes here - its statistical analysis to get a "sense" of where sales may be. Tactical Adventurers is not publishing its sales numbers which is a bad sign as companies do like to brag when they hit certain milestones, which tells me they have not broken a million. As dumb and arbitrary as that may seem it caries a totem-like significance straight from Campbells -The Power of Myth.
Valheim on the other hand sold 2 Million copies in 13 days and was up to 5 million by March and they made sure everyone knew it.
