@_Vic_ @Tuco I think the key here is that "slight bias toward the player".
The key here is that he doesn't know what he's talking about. I'm telling him that the numbers were COMPLETELY busted and he keeps talking about "people being bad at having an intuitive understanding of how odds work".
It's like telling someone you've been assaulted by a serial killer with a chainsaw in a dark alley and getting advices about how to improve your posture and facial expression to make a better first impression with strangers.
I do not recall you giving any proof of the numbers being busted besides your subjective perception and your bold but empty words. I asked modders that actually saw the code of the game and told me otherwise, and they explained to me why, didn´t ask me to believe in their word without further proof. To me, it´s pretty clear who knows what he´s talking about and who does not.
Just for the record, I never said it´s not possible what you said, I only pointed you have no basis for your claims besides your (allegedly) expertise, that may be enough for you, but I prefer to be sceptical than believing in the supposed savvy of some random guy in a forum.
The key here is you are not giving more facts to back up your claims than "It´s like that because I say so and I know better because I´m an expert, I played XCOM2! ", numbers and maths be damned. As I said before, talking about anything with anyone on that basis is a waste of time, so it would be a good moment to move on.