There's naturally another possible scenario, in theory:
BG3 doesn't go big enough (and Larian have now grown significantly as a studio, AFAIK there's now well over 200 people in-house plus about the same number externally) that they roll back to where they aimed to be prior to DOS1:
Another AA/A studio making the same type of game that all other AA/A games studios in the market focus on, as there's more copies to be sold there. DOS1 after all seems to have been an attempt to save the game company (or what was there left of it) -- had Larian's prior Divinity games fared better, which were much closer to your average AA/A RPG, there would have been no need to do it. Whilst Larian may have been burnt pretty heavily by trying to compete in this AA/A space (and told stories about how they were rejected by publishers when wanting to do a TB game, say), that doesn't mean they'd never really try again. At least from a budget / team size perspective, BG3 as pointed out IS an AAA game, but one that masks itself as the fairly traditional, stats and numbers crunching TT conversion AAA RPGs don't deal in anymore in favor of movie-like experiences, romances and action combat in order to appeal to an ever larger audience.
As of actual profits, would be interesting what fared better for an AA/A company such as Obsidian, btw. The first POE game (the second flopped, naturally, as did Tyranny) or The Outer Worlds. COnsidering Urquhart's interviews at the time of POE1's success, it seemed that didn't do too shabby business. Naturally, as a studio of a certain size, you can't exclusively do small/er projects such as PoE. Still curious about the game that Josh Sawyer is working on, which is apparently being done with a very small team. As projects such as this can also take more risks, there's apparently also actually little combat being involved, when most RPGs, including indies, are full of combat.
Studios all seem to aim to be growing anyways (that's how Bioware of old eventually changed, too, every new game needed to be bigger and reach a wider audience than the last,
some ex-employees called that the "blockbuster mentality") -- so maybe that's the "natural" route to take. First you make fairly specialized, comparably niche games, and then go you bigger the further you grow. Here's hoping that companies such as Owlcat who seem to be doing actually even better with their second game still stay reasonably specialized. I don't think in the future they'll exclusively make Pathfinder games (a Starfinder game was in the rumours a while back already). But they could specialize as the TT conversion company, say.
To me an actually healthy market is all about diversity. And for a period prior to the Kickstarter renaissance, outside of REALLY small indies on shoestring budgets (a torch guys like Jeff Vogel and Spiderweb had been carrying for decades), there wasn't all that much choice. In parts that's because the games industry was in a transition stage: The origins of Western RPGs are firmly planted into the home computer/PC space. Then suddenly there was the demand to focus on multi-platform releases. And then basically all the former big dogs outside of Bioware and Bethesda, who quickly made that transition just flat out died (Troika, Sir-Tech, Origin, Black isle, New World Computing, Interplay, SSI, Westwood, Attic etc. etc.) . Even Bethesda was almost broke before Morrowind came out and basically saved the company, btw.
Don't think that's happened to any other genre since, not in these volumes.
