Ok. I do think perhaps the "I'm really some big shot" probably isn't true for any of them.

Gale probably isn't Elminster
SH isn't Selune
Astarion isn't Cazador
Etc.

Trying really hard as I'm playing through to get the full vibe from everyone and to pick up on all the dialogue nuances.

Astarion truly does seem like he is telling the truth about most items; same with Gale, Wyll, SH, Lae.

I really do think the Gale Shadow Weave theory is a powerful one and likely more close to the truth.

As for Astarion, one guy on Reddit posted a translation about his scars on his back, saying it was very similar to Latin. In the game, it's Infernal. So he likely is/was a spawn of Cazador, as he says, for during the scar scene he seems genuinely unsure about the scars, and he seems to be processing the news that it's Infernal. Why would Cazador mark him up like that in the language of the hells?

SH seems like she could be a number of things, but a Sharran cleric is not one of them. I do wonder if someone's theory about her being one of the children of Moonhaven could be true. She's half-elf and could live longer, though she'd likely look older, or she could be resurrected or held in some stasis in the Astral Plane where you don't age.

Either way, as I'm replaying, it does seem like none of them are really outright lying to you about their backstories.

Besides, eventually we'll get to BE them. Right? So chances are they won't require some super big backstory to understand their main story I would think. Being Elminster or Selune would require too much explanation right at the beginning of their playthroughs.