I thought I try to work out an order of events as presented in the EA. Dates aren't something I would rely on but everyone is aware of the 1492 toll-keeper's log

There are also a lot of threads present in the EA that don't necessarily intertwine with each other or the events of the other games/modules but I'll theorize on how they might. It's all speculation but text in green is information I couldn't quite place, text in red is conjecture based on conjecture

Shar and her battle with Selune and the Spell Plague seem to be a not insignificant part of the story, especially with how Netherese magic/Karsus may be folded into it.

The oldest place we've found so far would appear to be the temple of Shar, its first foundation seems to predates everything else, it was at some point abandoned for reasons unknown, but likely before the Spell Plague, because after that a sect of Sharran's find and rehabit it, building new constructions

Abducted Elf, Eliette, Chosen of Lolth, Escapes Underdark to become Drider, likely the one guarding the entrance to Moonrise

  • Ketheric Thorm/Dark Justiciars
    During this time, Paladin of Shar, Ketheric Thorm discovers old Sharran Temple and sets up shop there
    The Harper Cache near Astarion talks of blasphemous behavior among local Selunites, based on name, my guess is 'Moonrise' was probably a Selunite temple corrupted, it's possible Thorm was a Selunite there too, and possibly his second Sybil
    As far as guessing a time-table goes, does anyone know how long a Rothe lives, the elder Rothe remembers when Thorm was around, and says he's out lived his mother and grand mother(whatever that means), it might be important if the events of the Spell Plague are important
    Village children go missing(Hag?)
  • Assault on Selunite's Underdark fort
    Ultimately unsuccessful based on intact defenses, though all but one Selunite is killed.
  • Razing of Moonhaven
    Village Necromancer and Apprentice perish
    Notes found at temple state successful raid on village
    presumably Selunite Temple also razed
  • Hell Harpers and Grove
    Murals in Grove display alliance between Harpers and Emerald Enclave defeating Dark Justiciars ("though the monsters have returned")
    Evidence(and remnants) of hellish host destroying Thorms temple
    Nightsong(Sword of Thorm? Product of Forge?) Lost in Underdark
    Thorm seems to have taken up blasphemy against Shar, putting himself before or or at least on equal terms with her, unclear if this is important
  • Moonrise Curse
    Cause unclear, my guess is inner temple will shed some light on it, and also explain why first Sharran's left/disappeared
    Halsin being present during the War is possibly privy to more
  • Goblins inhabit temple
    Goblins have operated in the area long before following Absolute.
  • Descent of Elturel
    the time of which is a controversal issue, but regardless has been recently returned by the start of BG:3.
  • Absolute Arrives on Surface
    Based on Tollboth log, refuges from Elturel are being attacked while fleeing Elturel, Goblins attacked the toll booth, Gnolls moved into the area too, both Gnolls, and Goblins are operating under True-Souls.
    Duke Ravenguard, abducted, going to or returning from Elturel, by Drow and Goblin agents, and taken to Moonrise
    Upheaval seen by Shadow Druids to influence Grove into invoking Rite of Thorns until threat passes
    Based on this Elturel might have returned but it seems to be in general disorder, the Descent was probably seen as a good opportunity for the Absolute to finally push topside
  • Mind-Flayers assault Elturel/our characters
    I don't quite remember this well, but I believe our first look at BG:3 in the teaser shows the Mind-Flayers raiding Elturel, whether this takes place before or during the descent, or after the return is unclear to me. Though we know by the time we play Elturel has returned and kicked out the Tieflings

Every Dead End to a Cure We've Seen So Far
  • Halsin
  • Priestess Gut
  • Githyanki Creche
  • Hag
  • Omeluum(Mind-Flayer)
  • Raphael*
I'm putting the Creche here because I think we're supposed to go the Creche before Moonrise in the game, meaning the Creche needs to loop back into the main quest somehow
*Raphael, might actually be able to remove the tadpole, but I think we'll only meet him again after, or at, Moonrise

Primary Players:
  • Absolute
    • Three Lieutenants
    • True Souls
    • Based on initial followers, seemingly started in the Underdark
  • Illithids
    • Create True-Souls
    • In possession of Gith Artifact, Artifact nullifies Absolute's influence.
    • Racial Hatred of Githyanki, their former slaves
  • Gith
    • Kithrak(forgot his name)
    • Gith Artifact, created or commissioned
    • Gith Purification Rite, with ability to "remove" infection, details vague, even to Gith (Lae'zel)
    • Dragons(probably not important)
    • Racial Hatred of Illithid, their former slave-masters
  • Cult of Shar
    • Know of Absolute
    • Stole Gith Artifact
    • Unclear if Moonrise's connection to Shar is coincidental
  • Zariel
    • Heavily involved during Descent into Avernus
    • Lot's of evidence of Hell's involvment, if none directly connecting it to the Absolute
    • Basically putting because of what I think will be in the story more than what we've got

  • Secondary Players(people who are interested but I can't place directly into the mix):
    it should go without saying but all these guys seem to be based in BG
    • Raphael
      • Cambion
      • Interested in attaining Tadpole
    • Cazador
      • Vampire
      • Gul
      • Unknown if aware of Absolute
      • Writes in Infernal on Astarion's back
    • 'M' Hag in BG
      • Hag
      • Besieged in BG, my guess, Dead Three cultists and Cazador, perfect for leveraging players
    • Duke Ravengard/Flaming Fist
      • BG.Gov
      • The 'Good' Duke played a minor role in Elturel during the Descent, he's usually depicted as keeping a lid on the rough edges in BG. His Elf Advisor, is also of interest, as were some of the legal documents found in Waukeen's Rest
    • Ironhand Gnomes
      • Svirfneblin
      • Looking for WMD RunePowder, for reasons that seem to involve terms like 'greater good' and 'ends justify means'

    Floating Variables:
    • Zhentarim
      • Scummy and Villainous, "free traders"
    • Master Lorrokan
      • Resident of the Familiar Ramazith Tower (BG)
      • Searching for Nightsong
    • Lenore De Hurst
      • Cleric of Mystral
      • Called to BG 1482
      • Not sure what her research in the Underdark was
    • Zevlor/Hellknights
      • Dodgy History involving both Zariel and a Vampire
      • Name checked by Sharrans during attack from Hell, though probably not related
    • Talking Mummy ~ Jergal
      • Dead, Undead Undead
      • Cryptic Bullshit
    • Society of Brilliance
      • Neutral wizard society operating in the underdark
    • Duergar Mercs
      • Leader was Exile, more evidence of Absolute operating in the Underdark first
    • Nhalloth
      • sunken netherese city

    Feel Free to poke holes in this, it started out really as me just organizing some notes I made, so it's hardly an opus. I also thought it would be fun for people to speculate on what's to come without any of the Datamined information, you might as well google a crossword puzzle, no fun!

    Last thing to work into, The Absolute's end game seems to be the destruction of Baldur's Gate, or perhaps the whole Sword Coast, as per our Tadpole Dreams, and remember it's an act of love.

    I'd also like to plug BladeDancer's threads for people who want a pretty definitive timeline of the 'canon' FR material 1 2 3

    Last edited by Sozz; 13/11/21 08:13 AM. Reason: some weird margin creep at the bottom