Last time someone at Larian (Swen Vincke, specifically) talked explicitly about this the wording was "We are REALLY TRYING to release before 2022 [ends]".
Given that in the entire history of software development being "on schedule" and matching the original prediction almost never happens and being early would border the miracle, I'd be incline to echo early 2023 as a more likely scenario.
Their official trailer is 2.3mill views, they havent even started marketting yet. I wouldnt trust nothing what Swen says, numbers speaks more. 2.3mills is exactly what it says "announcement". I say 3+ 2024.
