Last time someone at Larian (Swen Vincke, specifically) talked explicitly about this the wording was "We are REALLY TRYING to release before 2022 [ends]".
Given that in the entire history of software development being "on schedule" and matching the original prediction almost never happens and being early would border the miracle, I'd be incline to echo early 2023 as a more likely scenario.
The last quote I remember is "we'll be happy if BG3 releases in 2022" which is even less promising than ^. Swen doesn't expect it to release in 2022; I expect ~Q3 2023.
The way I see it is as follows. The game needs to be released in either in 2022, which is what they are shooting for, or the first half of 2023. If they fail to deliver that, it won't matter what the fanbois think, the company will have lost faith with many of their new customers. Yeah, they will likely keep most of their previous followers, though they will lose some of those as well (don't bother to chime in about what a good fanboi you are, no one cares).
You might hold this opinion, but that doesn't mean that "many of their new customers" think like this. Some will be happy to wait however long for a good BG3 game, and others will have already lost faith. After all, BG3 has already spent over a year in EA, with relatively infrequent content updates or continued hype. At this point I would argue that it doesn't really matter how long BG3 takes to release (within reason), as long as the release itself is both advertised well and is a fun game.
Personally, I'd much prefer a later release with a better game than a somewhat rushed release for 2022/early 2023. If Larian chooses an early release with a mediocre game (which I consider the current version of EA to be, with all its frustrating and/or missing aspects) I'll be very disappointed.
