The idea that we finish baking at Moonrise is supposition. It's presented as a possibility, but we can't be sure.
Something else could be going on. There could, for instance, be factions of illithids, which would support Rag's theory. I don't find the suggestion far fetched.
Regarding creche k'liir and Shadowheart... maybe. But the gith we meet at the pass are hunting the weapon, and they aren't from creche k'liir.
