There is expression in Czech: "I mistr tesař se někdy utne."
Google translates it as: "Even a master carpenter sometimes cuts off." so i can only hope its not some bullshit.

And i believe that is the case with nat 1 in skill checks ... so i kinda understand why Larian wanted to try it.
Dear Larian, we tryed ... and it sucks.

There is not much else to say, those 1 are droping too often to be rare enough to be even remotely concidered entertaining.

It just sucks.
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As for the other part of the topic ...
I have mixed feeling about it to be honest ... i basicaly agree with everything OP said ...
On the other hand, imagining Chromatic Orb being 3d8 ... as it should be ...
but dont cost any rare material to cast ... as it should not be ...
i cant honest imagine much people who would take, well basicaly any other offensive spell at low level. O_o
Some tuning would be in place, that much is certain.