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Re: These skewed rolls are ticking me off
Flooter #823234 24/07/22 07:15 PM
Joined: Sep 2020
mrfuji3 Offline
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mrfuji3
veteran
Joined: Sep 2020
Originally Posted by Flooter
Doing it that way takes about an hour an a half to record 400 rolls. I've got some reading to do to analyze the data properly; it's here should anyone like to take a crack at it.


5
20
3
16
10
4
2
10
10
16
3
16
3
9
17
1
4
9
12
1
3
11
8
3
10
11
9
8
17
2
1
10
13
6
8
19
19
11
6
2
19
1
17
16
4
15
16
20
14
11
8
20
14
16
5
18
3
11
7
4
4
9
20
15
19
8
17
6
18
6
5
4
16
17
20
20
7
3
18
19
4
6
6
8
17
16
13
12
12
4
13
12
17
18
9
13
18
7
8
6
16
17
5
4
1
12
7
12
2
13
2
19
1
7
8
16
6
3
20
20
12
10
4
4
9
17
19
7
11
9
12
16
8
19
2
18
16
12
3
13
9
8
12
8
9
6
19
6
19
10
5
11
20
10
14
17
15
12
3
4
16
3
10
9
5
19
17
14
5
19
15
4
12
1
2
20
12
10
14
8
3
16
14
11
17
16
8
2
20
7
11
14
19
15
15
4
18
13
9
15
14
7
2
11
8
16
11
18
8
15
7
2
4
8
16
4
19
3
13
9
11
11
19
9
9
17
4
9
13
15
19
9
15
13
9
19
17
4
17
18
10
12
3
2
15
18
6
12
13
3
1
2
10
9
16
12
13
19
13
15
12
19
12
10
12
2
19
16
6
2
19
14
19
11
7
3
20
6
6
11
6
8
6
6
2
16
12
15
1
13
6
6
7
15
11
4
11
7
2
20
19
1
10
8
2
18
3
9
8
10
15
5
20
5
13
8
10
6
16
4
20
11
17
14
5
8
19
20
13
4
16
20
17
10
15
11
15
15
7
4
18
4
9
13
14
3
7
9
1
1
19
10
8
20
8
2
10
2
13
15
2
14
10
9
19
18
13
10
4
8
19
16
9
7
11
8
11
6
15
14
12
16
15
12
2
12
9
2
17
1
1
20
17
20
10
17
10
13
6
14
The average of this set of numbers is 10.72 +/- 0.28, so it is statistically consistent with the expected average of 10.5.

For the actual distribution of rolls, we use a chi-squared test. A d20 results in 20-1=19 degrees of freedom, and for a 95% confidence level gives a critical value of 30.14. We compare this to the chi-squared of the sample, which I calculated to be 20. 20 is less than 30.14, meaning that this overall distribution is indistinguishable from an even distribution at the 95% confidence level (ignoring the order of rolls).
- The most discrepant single value is 5: it only appears 10 times and it should appear 20 -> 2.2-sigma difference. Every other value is within ~1.5-sigma.

Plotting the rolls as a function of time...visually it looks okay(?), but I'm not sure how to easily statistically quantify this. I want the excel function:
> go through the 400 cells and if a cell's value is between 1-10, how likely is it that the following cell's value is between 11-20? [or use slightly different ranges]
A perfect rng system should give 50%, but Larian's self-described Weighted Dice should give >50%.
Re: These skewed rolls are ticking me off
Niara #823253 24/07/22 10:59 PM
Joined: Jan 2020
Location: Eton, Berkshire, EU
etonbears Offline
addict
Offline
etonbears
addict
Joined: Jan 2020
Location: Eton, Berkshire, EU
Originally Posted by Niara
This is getting off topic, so I'm spoilering it out, and I'm probably not going to pursue an argument any further.

Good idea.

Originally Posted by Niara
The one section I'll leave out of the tagging is this:

Quote
Which D&D rules of the many available Larian decide will make a good videogame is up to them. You can certainly express a personal preference, but that is different from their choice being wrong.

Expressing my opinion and calling for a change is all I have been doing.

I'm not sure why you've taken issue with me doing this, over anyone else doing the same.

In my original post I chose to highlight specifically an off-topic section of your post where you opined that Larian had deliberately implemented a feature incorrectly, and that you wanted it changed.

I simply provided a counter-opinion ( presuming you actually accept that other people have opinions, and that they may differ from yours ) that their implementation is within the bounds of their role as a D&D DM, if they so chose, but that I didn't really think it mattered either way.

I didn't attack you personally, or even question your reasoning; I just expressed an alternative view, without soliciting an argument.

Originally Posted by Niara
I specifically called out confirmation that this was not a bug and was Larian's intention, and that the only thing people could do if they disproved was to give that feedback and ask for it to be rectified to 5e rules, if they felt that way. It is, in my opinion, a wrong decision; I want them to fix it. It is a homebrew rule that, in my opinion, they should not have made. That is quite directly what I have been saying each post from the first one you chose to respond to - that it is not a bug, that it is Larian's deliberate homebrew, intended by them, and that if you want it changed to line up with actual 5e rules all you can do is submit that feedback to them.

And I expressed an alternative view, because I want Larian to know that there are alternative views.

By this point, I'm sure it doesn't matter all that much, as Larian will have a fair idea of how different segments of the EA communty ( which is far larger than these boards ) will react to unreleased content, as well as how large each segment is.
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