Thanks for linking to the data. I'd heard about the sine wave shape of BG3's RNG, but seeing it like this makes it much clearer. I now understand where that sinking feeling comes from when I miss three 80% shots in a row: I'm about to fail everything for the next round or two.
There's something seriously messed up with their RNG.
I don't know a good way to get the game to output from the combat log to demonstrate this though.
The best way probably involves a mod interacting directly with the RNG engine to automatically log rolls.
The dirty way is to get a PC's AC to 19 or 20, then attack them with a wizard (-1 strength) with a long sword (no proficiency). Every roll would miss except a natural 20, which gives you a bunch of consecutive rolls to record by hand from the combat log.
