It’s pretty clear that so far they are at least HOPING to release before the end of the first half of 2023 (case in point:when releasing patch 7 in February and confirming they would not make it by the end of 2022 Swen also added “We are estimating roughly one full year of development ahead of us).
If that’s the case I can see the OP being right and EA getting at most another patch (if even that) before the studio becomes laser-focused on the release build.
If we are getting more than one, that’s also going to mean the release getting post-poned again.
Also going to add to this, resources put towards maintaining the EA build take away dev time that could be spent polishing up the full game instead. As we get closer to full release, it becomes increasingly pointless to update the EA with another patch. Realistically, if the EA build was updated, say, 1 month before full release, it would only be for the sake of placating the fanbase as we wait, because any major feedback from that patch likely won't be addressed in time to make it into the full build.
If we end up with more than 1 additional patch left in EA, it's a very safe bet that the full release of BG3 isn't happening in the first half of the year at minimum.
