i think it just depends on when exactly they start ramping up the marketing and advertising for the game. as they get a firm idea on a release date, they will put more focus into the final build of the game & spending money on marketing; it wouldn't make sense for them to divert talent from the main game to the early access build during that time. i think as soon as we get a confirmed release date we shouldn't expect more than 1 extra early access patch - and that's if we're lucky.

it would be nice and cathartic for bg3 to release in full on the anniversary of early access first going live imo, but if not, a late spring early summer release would be great

i just want them to put everything they have into this game and i don't want them to think of releasing before it's ready