My stance on this is that I sincerely hope Larian didn't start development fully assuming that they'll be making BG4 after this. We all know how well that worked out for the Pillars of Eternity series. I imagine a subset of the Larian fanbase wants them to go back to making DOS3 afterwards, or they might want to do something entirely different like going back to their action RPG games or making a game with a different IP. Owlcat did just take a detour from Pathfinder into Warhammer 40k, after all.
Not to mention that trying to design too many choices for the sole purpose of sequel bait would be an ambitious headache too. The Dragon Age series is already the poster child for this, and that series has to deal with the fanbase being eternally disappointed about surviving protagonists of the first game being forever in the background just because it's possible for them to die at the first game's conclusion instead.
Larian already talked about how the possibilities revolving around Shadowheart's artifact already caused issues with how they were designing the plot in this game too, I don't think they want to extend something like that to direct sequels, if they even want to make one to begin with. All of their most recent Divinity games either took place hundreds of years apart or are heavily implied to be in different timelines with how many retcons there are.
If a BG4 exists, the most I'd expect to carry over are maybe bonus items and certain characters from BG3 showing up that can't be killed off here at all.
Has any game ever gone to Waterdeep? I constatly hear Waterdeep this and Waterdeep that, but never seen the place.
Strangely enough, there aren't very many games taking place in Waterdeep, but there's a lot of literature and tabletop modules revolving around that city and the Undermountain beneath it. The only games I'm aware of are two dungeon crawlers in the 90s, and some mobile gacha within the past 5 years, and both revolved around the Yawning Portal and the Undermountain rather than the actual city.
(EDIT: Actually some Neverwinter Nights modules took place in the Undermountain too, and there was apparently a little known action RPG made for the Atari in 2004 that very briefly took the main cast to the city.)
Forgotten Realms: Demon StoneAnyway, the distinction between the proper city itself and the Undermountain is fairly important. Waterdeep is said to be one of the largest cities in the entire setting (if not THE largest) and considered one of the best places to study magic, and the Undermountain is a strange dungeon underneath the city managed by some crazy ass reclusive mage living down there, and the city just kinda has to deal with it being there because it seems every time anyone besides the reclusive mage tries to do anything in there beyond trying to claim a piece of the dungeon for themselves and adventuring for treasure, bad shit happens. There's also a lesser known city of Skullport that can be reached from the Undermountain, an ancient Netherese city that is, in the present day, a den of crime and slavers that also happens to be managed by a beholder that took on the title of Xanathar (a name most of you have probably heard in passing).
The scale of the entire region can be assumed to be far beyond that of Baldur's Gate, which is probably why there aren't very many games taking place in the area, and none in the city itself. The place seemingly has the attention of every god in the setting (and IIRC it's guarded by some dragons too). I remember reading at some point that, according to one of the latest modules, one of the possible major explanations for all of the weird shit surrounding that city is due to how...
Waterdeep and Undermountain lies on top of a tear in the Weave.
My hope is that the Solasta devs get contracted to work on a Waterdeep-centric game. But as to what it would even look like, there's so many directions it could go in, as the place basically has decades of lore at this point.
For all we know, BG3 might actually briefly take us to Waterdeep. There's a few plot threads that might take us towards the city, mostly revolving around Gale. Mindflayers are known to be operating in the Undermountain too.