Still doesn't explain the predetermination of this outcome, because after all 30-40 attempts there is absolutely no probability that a roll of 9+ would have not occurred.
What's the roll for?
Other folks can say whether they've run into the same problem in that situation or not.
It's the [Wizard] [Arcana] roll at the entrance to the Putrid Bog. I have 5 solid bonus and 1d4 from guidance so it should be quite easy to beat a 15 required. Like I mentioned in the edited post above, after disabling the weighted dice I was barely able to beat it with a roll of 8 and a 3 guidance roll.