An <official> reveal of all the playable classes maybe would be nice! Surely 2 years of EA + x years of pre-develolpment is enough to at least give us that bit of info without doing some guess work. Or is that asking for too much? I am so confused on why Larian keeps these basic game elements so secretive or, at least, very murky. It can only bring more general excitement for the game giving us more info!
But I think I get it. Its like growing that special Turnip and finally bringing it to the family gathering...oh my what a sight! Doing this every few months keeps everyone on their toes and refreshes expectations.
Last edited by Count Turnipsome; 26/09/2212:57 PM.
It just reminded me of the bowl of goat's milk that old Winthrop used to put outside his door every evening for the dust demons. He said the dust demons could never resist goat's milk, and that they would always drink themselves into a stupor and then be too tired to enter his room..
For the 2nd anniversary, I expect a tweet from Larian thanking their players, underlining progress on BG3 and asking for patience because amazing things are on their way.
Actually yeah - a brief video aimed at wider audience, who might not be playing or paying attention to BG3 might be a reasonable thing to do. Game's release date perhaps?
For the 2nd anniversary, I expect a tweet from Larian thanking their players, underlining progress on BG3 and asking for patience because amazing things are on their way.
Told ya.
I still dont understand why cant we change Race for our hirelings. Lets us play Githyanki as racist as they trully are!
Since the patch 9 files were recently uploaded to Steam, I’m going to go ‘all-in’ with the predictions: this will be their biggest event yet. With 2023 only around the corner, so too is the release date – so this 2nd anniversary is a chance to also drum up hype for that.
I believe they’ll offer everything people have been asking for – and all the usual ‘offerings’ (1 new class per patch) will be amped up somehow to make it seem all the more ‘explosive’ from a marketing POV.
The highlights for Patch 9 being:
1) Both Paladin and Monk
2) All new reactions system
3) Level 5
4) New Location (Mountain Pass) and the full Act 1, all the way to its cliff-hanger conclusion which will involve a boss battle against super, mutated illithids (who are an illithid version of BG2’s slayer form) and a cameo from the Absolute – who is Bhaal reincarnated. You will be given the chance to ascend to this slayer-illithid form – and you will either be conquering Baldur’s Gate as an illithid-slayer throughout Act 2 or you’ll be fighting them. Companion choices will be permanent, and likewise you’ll either be fighting with them or against them depending on your decision to side with Bhaal/Absolute
5) Graphics returned to pre-patch 8 standards, or a toggle to do so at a min
6) Release date of February the 25th
It will be the last patch before release, and yes the release date will be EXACTLY February the 25th. At 00:00AM GMT.
Yeah the patch 9 files were uploaded a few days ago to Steam DB. I thought that was common knowledge? It's obviously pre-release, so you can't download the patch. But the fact that it's being prepped = patch 9 for the anniversary.
I can see Larian pushing out a bunch of content towards the EA for some testing prior to final release, but I'm not too sure if they'd batch up Paladins and Monks together.
The issue with it is that it really dilutes the playerbase and thus the testing of the class. At this stage of the EA not a lot of people are willing to do 2 runs within the same patch again. Even if they made running both together easier (i.e. merc system), you're still leading with 1 for conversations, etc. I think it makes more sense to do 2 patches instead of 1.
Realistically if Larian is starting to get close to launch, they'd probably want more instances of content and news to build more momentum.
but I'm not too sure if they'd batch up Paladins and Monks together.
Reading around, most can’t even stomach a minor run with a new character per patch at this point. I couldn’t bring myself to even test the bard or sorcerer. Barely did 30 min with the barbarian and had to unplug.
The one new class per patch is now stale and predictable, and familiarity breeds contempt. They need to do something surprising and fresh to shake things up and get the more jaded players stoked for at least one more run prior to go-live.
People who are sick of EA probably won’t play the paladin or monk if they are split into two more patches. But they might be willing to give this thing one more run if the next patch doesn’t seem formulaic. It’s all psychological – make people think you’re doing something different, even if you really aren’t.
Those panels from hell have overstayed their welcome – time to park them, and deliver a whopper for the anniversary that’ll keep people interested until launch. If they stick with one class per patch, there will really be a sense of them dragging their heels with this thing – seems creatively lazy and gives a poor impression, at least to me, of any kind of energy behind the product. Especially now that they’re at the last hurdle. Why limp to the finishing line.
I dunno how you do it ... Im unable to make at least one full run through each patch ... there is allways something new to discover ... new classes, new spells to test, new items to try, new bugs to abuse >:]
I still dont understand why cant we change Race for our hirelings. Lets us play Githyanki as racist as they trully are!
Yeah the patch 9 files were uploaded a few days ago to Steam DB. I thought that was common knowledge? It's obviously pre-release, so you can't download the patch. But the fact that it's being prepped = patch 9 for the anniversary.
The reason no one is really discussing this is that we usually see this like 2 months in advance, especially if Larian has yet to even begin any teasing which usually begins a month in advance.
We absolutely aren’t getting a patch by the anniversary.
Yeah the patch 9 files were uploaded a few days ago to Steam DB. I thought that was common knowledge? It's obviously pre-release, so you can't download the patch. But the fact that it's being prepped = patch 9 for the anniversary.
I've never look at this folder but usually before a patch... the files are previously 4-6 weeks in "depot/branches". There is nothing in depot so I'm not sure what you have found mean anything... but I don't really know how steamdb works. It's just not as it has always been before a patch release.
The reason no one is really discussing this is that we usually see this like 2 months in advance, especially if Larian has yet to even begin any teasing which usually begins a month in advance.
There are multiple threads on Steam discussing patch 9, some of which are explicitly titled patch 9 – but references to the Steam DB update are scattered across several different threads if you paginate through a patch 9 search on BG3 Steam.
Originally Posted by Saito Hikari
We absolutely aren’t getting a patch by the anniversary.
What is it Bukowski said about confidence again?
Most of my ‘predictions’ are tongue-in-cheek, in case that wasn’t obvious, and I'm making no attempt whatsoever to 'prove' anything – but a patch 9 for the anniversary would not surprise me in the least.
It’s a big event and you really think anyone’s going to tune in just to hear them all congratulating themselves?
‘And by the way, we’ll have another panel from hell coming up in a few more weeks!’
Possibly with some unsubtle ‘clue’ as to what the class is going to be. That sorta marketing has far, far outlived its sell-by-date. The full game is in a playable enough state that they were hunting for playtesters quite a while back. Surely that test is already in motion, so they’ve nothing to add now but as much polish as is humanly reasonable.
I’m sure even their own devs/designers want it out the door by now, so this is the perfect time to spin up a big bang final patch, loaded to the gills with content, classes and new mechanics (read: level 5 and some new reaction system that’s the only big new mechanic marketing have semi-confirmed/hinted at).
And they do change up their patch-release formula. Ie – in the past, it used to be ‘patch hints’ -> ‘panel from hell (few weeks later)’ -> ‘patch (few weeks later)’. Recently it’s been panel from hell then straight to patch. For the last patch, they’re going to take that up one step further for sure.
but I'm not too sure if they'd batch up Paladins and Monks together.
Reading around, most can’t even stomach a minor run with a new character per patch at this point. I couldn’t bring myself to even test the bard or sorcerer. Barely did 30 min with the barbarian and had to unplug.
The one new class per patch is now stale and predictable, and familiarity breeds contempt. They need to do something surprising and fresh to shake things up and get the more jaded players stoked for at least one more run prior to go-live.
People who are sick of EA probably won’t play the paladin or monk if they are split into two more patches. But they might be willing to give this thing one more run if the next patch doesn’t seem formulaic. It’s all psychological – make people think you’re doing something different, even if you really aren’t.
Those panels from hell have overstayed their welcome – time to park them, and deliver a whopper for the anniversary that’ll keep people interested until launch. If they stick with one class per patch, there will really be a sense of them dragging their heels with this thing – seems creatively lazy and gives a poor impression, at least to me, of any kind of energy behind the product. Especially now that they’re at the last hurdle. Why limp to the finishing line.
I'd love for them to change up the formula too, and while I do think the burnout is real - especially for people who are very active on the EA (I'm talking about forum/discord users that are there every day, which includes myself), I feel like we're actually a pretty niche, fringe group, even within the subset of EA testers.
The player count data really doesn't show the same extreme burnout we see in these niche groups: https://steamcharts.com/app/1086940 More people actually came back to play the Bard compared to the Barbarian patch. So regardless of the sentiment on the forums, it seems like there's still a steady stream of players each patch for the purposes of testing.
The reason why I suspect multiple patches instead of 1 big content dump is because the Panel From Hells have actually been a fantastic advertising tool for Larian. And I think business-wise it's as important for them now (getting close to launch) to be more frequently noisy and noticed as possible by more mainstream (non traditional CRG) gamers - which is where their major source of growth is.
They're getting thousands of views and making news and conversation each time they do PFHs at limited "paid media" (i.e. digital/tv commercials) cost. On top of being able to showcase how personable and wacky their studio is, which is a HUGE part of their brand as a studio. Obviously, they'll probably still launch paid media closer to launch, but anything you can get for "free" like Panel from Hell now, you take it.
yes the release date will be EXACTLY February the 24th. At 00:00AM GMT.
I applaud the aplomb! It’s going in the Great Book of Predictions. (Also, am I just tired or did you edit your prediction from the 25th to the 24th? Was there interference on your crystal ball?)
Originally Posted by konmehn
familiarity breeds contempt
I feel sorry for your family…
Originally Posted by konmehn
Especially now that they’re at the last hurdle. Why limp to the finishing line.
Despite your prediction of an early 2023 release, BG3 might launch next fall, for all we know. I get the sense that a big design decision was made during EA which coincided with longer wait times between patches. Larian might need to dole out classes in order to have enough patch content to last 2023.
but anything you can get for "free" like Panel from Hell now, you take it
Except it’s not for free, though – in fact, I recall them spending bonkers amounts of cash on the set pieces for these events. These are very pricey affairs, and that money, IMO, could be better spent.
There’s only so many of these extravagant set pieces you can finance, even if you’re a ‘successful’ company like Larian. If you’re looking at a Jan or Feb release date – and why not? – then this anniversary event would be the last bit of extravagance, with the rest of the budget going on the more traditional marketing of trailers and whatnot.
While I don’t have stats, my money would be on the PFHs having more of a niche appeal to Larian’s core audience of fellow goofs. Reactions I’ve read on PFH tend to be withering to all-out scathing in some cases. Do they do more harm than good, in other words? Especially for the expenditure.
The average of ‘average users’ on the Steam stats page indicates a fairly linear pattern of 1.5k with sporadic spikes around patch-time of the same 3-3.5k. Then they taper off back to 1.5 the next month. That still says burnout to me, since it’s only the addicted 1.5 who’ll always be playing it – while it’s natural a few will return to ‘dip in’ for a bit around a patch. They don’t stick around by the looks of it.
Originally Posted by Flooter
Also, am I just tired or did you edit your prediction from the 25th to the 24th
The 25th was plucked from a hat and I hadn’t added a time – when I looked up the date properly, I saw it’s a Saturday. Will change that back actually, because a midnight release right before the weekend does make sense.
‘Familiarity breeds contempt’ is an ancient proverb – and I highly doubt this EA will continue to next fall. People are blowing up daily on Steam about the timeframe, and I seem to remember Sven making a very clipped remark recently about core work being complete (not looking this up, so could be wrong but I believe it was the Patch 8 PFH).
It would be very bad business to let EA touch 3 years, and not worth it either – it would only piss people off, and for what? They’d also have run out of classes to exhibit for any other panels from hell. They’re definitely at the end of all this. But only time will tell who’s right and who’s wrong…
These are very pricey affairs, and that money, IMO, could be better spent.
Doubt that ...
I mean ... even tho Swen have ugly habbit to railroad everyone (most likely at least partialy bcs of time schedule) ... and even tho some ppl on them seems extremely uncofortable before camera ... You can still count every PHB as advertising / presentation for potential investors / teambuilding action / fun show for fans ... Highly doubt it would manageable to make theese things separately with same money.
I still dont understand why cant we change Race for our hirelings. Lets us play Githyanki as racist as they trully are!
Replying to you rarely seems to go well – for anyone on this forum. But what do you ‘doubt’, precisely – you doubt renting an entire castle and turning it into an elaborate theme park is expensive? Or you doubt that all the equipment and rehearsal and costumes and editing is expensive? Or do you doubt all the thousands and thousands that go into this – not to mention all the man-hours of planning – couldn’t be better spent, I don’t know, making a game instead? Because I’d disagree.
And yeah, like you said – no one seems particularly comfortable at these things, so that’s the teambuilding bit out the window. Even if you classify it as ‘advertising’, that doesn’t automatically translate into sales. Bad advertising in fact damages the brand, and I’ve read many unflattering ‘takes’ on these skits outside the core Larian fanbase. The word ‘cringe’ has become so overused these days that it is itself, ironically, cringe – but that’s how I’d view these PFHs: unwatchable, frankly.
Your last sentence makes no logical sense, so I can’t address it – but you might want to reflect on your habit of adding cloying little winky-faces to the end of your ‘I gotcha’ remarks. There’s a bait-y-ness to it that’s not subtle, and it’s an eyesore of the highest calibre during the emoji-deluge that you frequently use to suffocate opinions you dislike. Can you not just state ‘I’ve an alternative take’ in a neutral fashion, like all other adults? Write the take, leave out the bait and ditch the goad-y nudge-nudge winky-wink malarkey.
but anything you can get for "free" like Panel from Hell now, you take it
Except it’s not for free, though – in fact, I recall them spending bonkers amounts of cash on the set pieces for these events. These are very pricey affairs, and that money, IMO, could be better spent.
There’s only so many of these extravagant set pieces you can finance, even if you’re a ‘successful’ company like Larian. If you’re looking at a Jan or Feb release date – and why not? – then this anniversary event would be the last bit of extravagance, with the rest of the budget going on the more traditional marketing of trailers and whatnot.
The quotation mark's on "free" was intentional - as the majority of most marketing costs tend to be buying media space (i.e. YouTube pre-rolls, TV commercials, etc, which are exorbitantly expensive for the global market), as opposed to the production costs of filming a commercial or conducting a live stream.
Yes, setting up livestreams, building a set and hiring a production crew does cost money - can easily be 100k+ USD per production (especially if they're fancy about it), but that's a small portion in a triple AAA marketing budget (for comparison, Witcher 3 was estimated at 30+ million). The fact that we're not seeing some high-cost indicators - i.e. talent usage (i.e. actors / high-tier influencers) and the general mid-tier production value of the streams do seem to imply they aren't going all out in terms of expenditure.
Now, I don't have access to Larian's marketing analytics, strategy, and full budget, so I can't make a judgement call on whether they're spending their marketing dollar efficiently. But the general viewership count and watch time (on a stream fully dedicated to your product) does look pretty impressive (there are brands that can't even get this much attention spending way more). And the biggest indicator that the PFHs are doing at least okay for Larian is that they've kept doing it over 2 years. And ultimately, not spending money on marketing is not an option.
Also, I'm not sure why you think the game is being released in Jan or Feb. All we know is that it's being released in 2023 and assuming it will be the 1st two months is extremely optimistic.
Originally Posted by konmehn
While I don’t have stats, my money would be on the PFHs having more of a niche appeal to Larian’s core audience of fellow goofs. Reactions I’ve read on PFH tend to be withering to all-out scathing in some cases. Do they do more harm than good, in other words? Especially for the expenditure.
For sure, the PFHs are definitely not aimed at the hardcore RPG population (a lot of people here on the forums, or some dedicated RPG forums where "RPG = serious business" like RPGCodex). But bringing awareness of BG3 to that population has never been an issue for Larian. For people within that group, their stance on BG3 are probably pretty rooted, and regardless of how they feel about the game - they KNOW about the game. They are a loud minority, but represents a relatively small fraction of sales.
Larian's core audience is definitely one of the target for the PFHs - and they're a pretty big audience, as proven by the success of DOS2. The DOS audience have a lot more "casual" players that probably don't even follow the RPG world closely, never mind the Early Access of a game. They're also likely way more valuable to Larian as they're the ones that will advocate for the game, and draw their friends in via multiplayer. Any other people they can drag into this is just icing on the cake.
In terms of gauging the sentiment of the more general gaming public (which Larian needs to target to get into AAA territory) - we can look at the top voted YT comments and Reddit:
Overall, the top comments are pretty positive - and also show that the general public aren't really caught up with everything happening in the EA. Even comments that are "impatient for release" (i.e. PCGaming top comment: "I want to play this, but I also dont want to be bored of it by the time the full game releases. feelsbadman") is a pretty positive indicator as it acknowledges awareness and speaks to the desire to play the game.
Originally Posted by konmehn
The average of ‘average users’ on the Steam stats page indicates a fairly linear pattern of 1.5k with sporadic spikes around patch-time of the same 3-3.5k. Then they taper off back to 1.5 the next month. That still says burnout to me, since it’s only the addicted 1.5 who’ll always be playing it – while it’s natural a few will return to ‘dip in’ for a bit around a patch. They don’t stick around by the looks of it.
The spike during the month of the patch is all Larian needs. Their goal isn't to maintain an active playerbase right now outside of the patch cycle on an incomplete game. They just need enough people (new or old) to be playing the new content to provide feedback.
The spike in numbers for just 1 month is quite natural as the EA is only 20-30 hours at max. Also note, the 1.5k we see concurrently might not be the same people. Sales of the EA is still relatively good (Bronze tier in Steam's 2021 top sellers) and they're getting new people coming to the game all the time.
As for the 2nd part... I believe that was actually Flooter's quote and not mine.
