If BG doesn't deliver I'll be supremely disappointed. I think most people thinking of Baldur's Gate, either think of exploring the wilderness in the first game and exploring Athkatla in the the second. Considering all the leads in the EA that seemingly lead to BG, if the city doesn't measure up to that it'll be a huge let down.
I think there might be a refugee crisis if the tieflings make it there, and the forces of the Absolute will be probably be a part of the backdrop as we go along, but having it all come to a head that early with some kind of siege is a waste of potential.
