May or may not be relevant, but I keep forgetting to check this in the vision you get when entering the goblin camp. Is one of the three chosen you see in that vision the same fighter that you stab in one of the dream sequences?
Nah that's just a Balduran guard trying to look like an Oblivion guard

Those in the vision are the three Chosen Drows of the Absolute, one of them is known as the General and he is at Moonrise Towers. The location of the other two are unknown.
I am guessing that the vision in which we see Baldur's Gate burning may not be by our hand. I would not be surprised if the Absolute infiltrated the city to destroy it from within. For all we know, that guard that attacked us may as well be an Absolute cultist working for the Absolute. Lovely thing about the Mysterious Guest is that their visions and dream sequences are indeed mysterious. And I would really hate it if it turned out to be just a classical Disney villain that's evil just for the sake of evil.
Definitely radiates the whole "I'm mysterious and most likely evil" vibe, but I really think it will be the opposite. I am of belief that the vision is just a smokescreen that makes us think we're about to drench the city in blood and we probably may, but in Absolute's army blood. Because she is building an actual army and Kagha mentions that there is an army amassing on the Sword Coast. So we probably will be fighting in the streets of Baldur's Gate to protect it from the Absolute's army.
I still think it doesn't make sense because the dream lover is trying to tempt you to become the leader of his or her army and use your powers to become truly great and take over Baldur's Gate. This seems more like the absolute. Not only that but the more you use the powers that the dream lover gives you, the more you start to do weird transformations in Camp. It just really doesn't seem like the weapon is the dream lover to me.
I highly doubt it is the Absolute as it makes her seem terribly bipolar if that was the case. We experience the Absolute's voice and her immense power over the mind on the bridge. If it truly was her, then she'd have no trouble just overpowering us from the moment we stepped onto land.
One thing that is very interesting is that when we are asleep, something keeps warning us of threats. This is seen when Astarion tries to bite us during our sleep and when Minthara tries to stab us. In both cases the Narrator mentions that something within us is warning us of danger and then wakes us up. I do not think it's the tadpole and the only other resident in our head is the Dreamer, who feels very insulted and annoyed if you imply they're trying to harm you in any way.
If anything, I'm absolutely certain that the Absolute, the tadpole and the Dreamer are three different entities. The Absolute doesn't care one bit about us nor wants us, all she wants is the weapon which is able to go against her. The Dreamer wants us to become something greater. And the tadpole just wants to transform. But all three are at each other's necks.