Oh but i did .. you said:
"
I am just judging on what we know"
In order to "know" you need source ...
Otherwise you just speculated it yourself and therefore you dont "know", you just presume. ;-)
And since such source dont exist as far as i know ... i "knew" you dont really "know".

I deducted ... seems likely ...
See?
There is nothing wrong in having an opinion ...
But why pretend its confrimmed fact?