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journeyman
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journeyman
Joined: Oct 2020
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30 Attks
4 - Nat 20s
4 - 19s
2 - 18s
Obviously, a meager 30 data points aren't going to tell us anything, but it may be worth pursuing data on this to see if the numbers are skewing for higher-level/story-relevant NPCs, even with Non-Karmic dice. Maybe, but as you say, 30 data points is nothing. 100 rolls (each value is expected to occur 5+ times) is the bare minimum to say anything approaching conclusive. I'd be surprised if Larian coded certain enemies to use different rng systems given all the troubles they've had with rng since EA release. But hey, it's Larian, so you never know. If you do record those rolls, I'd be interested in the findings and/or happy to do some stats on them. If I get some time (and this would definitely take more time) I'll try to get better data on this and send it your way. On the one hand, I want to believe Larian wouldn't do this. But on the other... I wouldn't put it past them to have implemented some kind of "boss boost".
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addict
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addict
Joined: Jan 2021
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I just went and sampled Karmic Dice for Patch 9 Normal Attack Rolls (n = 225) Average: 12.34 https://imgur.com/a/vnOeqxNAdvantage Attack Rolls (n = 224) Average: 13.95 https://imgur.com/a/PwmxIdNDisadvantage Attack Rolls (n = 224) Average: 9.45 https://imgur.com/a/75g3ui5Raw data if you want it @MrFuji
Karmic Normal
17
17
15
16
11
18
20
6
15
15
5
18
15
5
14
13
5
18
17
15
1
17
6
14
12
1
6
7
12
7
14
13
3
17
16
11
10
13
13
18
2
10
12
20
14
13
8
9
10
20
20
10
6
7
16
18
12
11
17
15
14
4
17
14
20
13
11
15
12
2
12
14
3
4
17
13
4
19
6
8
1
13
9
20
11
10
12
3
12
10
2
1
18
20
6
17
19
17
8
11
13
4
14
20
13
20
8
20
13
18
10
20
20
20
16
17
2
12
13
19
9
13
16
9
19
18
1
13
16
17
10
11
19
1
16
14
12
10
13
8
12
18
4
18
20
14
16
9
15
8
7
12
15
8
12
17
15
12
17
8
19
1
15
16
19
16
3
4
15
17
20
20
14
11
4
13
2
18
11
4
18
16
16
14
16
13
3
20
7
19
11
7
9
12
3
3
18
14
15
10
15
10
13
17
16
18
19
16
15
11
12
14
19
11
13
13
12
20
2
14
10
15
1
10
11
Karmic Advantage
12
18
18
16
18
16
17
14
16
19
14
15
12
15
5
12
15
15
13
16
15
10
18
20
18
15
13
18
19
16
10
19
13
17
20
20
20
5
15
9
13
11
15
15
18
19
19
12
14
16
17
19
11
7
15
6
11
17
15
7
20
19
9
8
17
17
11
7
17
15
19
15
16
9
19
6
20
18
16
18
11
18
14
7
13
19
6
10
16
19
17
6
13
18
16
19
15
20
11
16
16
20
12
15
6
20
14
16
12
16
13
17
9
11
19
15
19
14
12
18
14
5
11
17
8
13
19
15
16
16
17
14
14
6
17
20
15
18
7
12
13
16
14
18
10
8
14
7
7
20
18
19
13
11
12
14
17
15
9
19
6
12
11
16
13
7
17
8
13
11
11
7
10
16
18
18
18
14
11
16
15
9
5
11
16
19
19
14
8
10
11
14
13
17
11
14
9
20
19
9
15
14
19
13
8
20
20
10
15
10
13
14
16
7
7
16
18
12
6
5
17
12
8
11
Karmic Disadvantage
4
16
7
17
6
13
16
6
3
12
12
1
8
17
16
19
1
13
12
7
7
3
1
17
17
16
17
5
9
2
12
16
11
4
3
10
12
17
14
5
9
2
11
6
13
19
14
13
5
14
6
13
1
11
1
3
2
5
6
16
13
6
7
5
18
20
2
6
9
10
6
7
16
12
8
1
11
8
1
8
15
13
4
11
9
5
8
5
9
6
1
3
16
1
18
6
10
2
19
4
6
8
2
5
18
2
15
8
10
10
8
16
12
13
11
10
2
7
9
3
15
11
11
15
10
8
2
10
5
18
20
8
3
18
13
13
5
1
3
13
13
11
9
3
1
18
6
12
2
14
6
19
7
8
14
5
4
17
5
19
11
5
5
9
6
6
8
19
6
8
12
7
16
3
7
14
11
6
9
2
14
19
4
4
15
3
15
18
19
9
4
16
11
5
8
9
12
1
20
5
1
12
18
1
5
19
16
17
12
4
14
4
19
20
6
16
3
2
6
12
19
1
18
8
Last edited by DragonSnooz; 30/12/22 01:05 AM.
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veteran
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veteran
Joined: Sep 2020
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I just went and sampled Karmic Dice for Patch 9 Woo more data, thanks! Individually, your 225 Normal Karmic Attack RollsIs inconsistent with a normal distribution, showing too many 20s and too few 2s through 9s. Chi^2 value of 42 compared to the critical 95% confidence value of 30.14. Average of 12.38 +/- 0.36, compared with an expected average of 10.5 Combined with @Hrungr's data for 960 Normal Karmic Attack RollsIs inconsistent with a normal distribution, showing too many 18s, 19s, and 20s, and too few 2s through 9s. Chi^2 value of 128 compared to the critical 95% confidence value of 30.14. Average of 12.34 +/- 0.19, compared with an expected average of 10.5 Your 224 Advantage Karmic Attack RollsIs overall statistically consistent with a normal distribution. However, there are 35% too few 20s, at 2.3-sigma. Chi^2 value of 20.1 compared to the critical 95% confidence value of 30.14. Average of 13.96 +/- 0.28, compared with an expected average of 13.82. Your 224 Disadvantage Karmic Attack RollsIs statistically inconsistent with a normal distribution, with too few 1s through 4s. Chi^2 value of 50 compared to the 95% critical value of 30.14. Average of 9.45 +/- 0.37, compared with an expected average of 7.17. In conclusion, having Advantage almost perfectly counteracts the effects of Karmic Dice, except you get less crits. For all other distributions, Karmic Dice seems to raise the average roll by 2, making it less likely that you'll roll numbers below ~9.
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Volunteer Moderator
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Volunteer Moderator
Joined: Feb 2022
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Thanks all for these interesting analyses! In conclusion, having Advantage almost perfectly counteracts the effects of Karmic Dice, except you get less crits.
For all other distributions, Karmic Dice seems to raise the average roll by 2, making it less likely that you'll roll numbers below ~9. I’ve got a bit confused in amongst all the data whether this is the case for our party, enemies or both? And whatever the answer, I guess the next question is whether this is what it is supposed to do? Do we actually know for sure? I think I recall in a PfH Larian said they introduced it partly in the hope that players who reloaded on failed checks might be able to use it to reduce save scumming, and I think someone else mentioned it was partly in response to players complaining they missed too frequently. I guess increasing the average roll for PCs and allies would be one way of addressing that, though not necessarily the best. And I guess extending the same advantage to enemies would be karmic, if that’s what is happening!
"You may call it 'nonsense' if you like, but I've heard nonsense, compared with which that would be as sensible as a dictionary!"
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addict
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addict
Joined: Jan 2021
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The most telling metrics from my sample set.
For Karmic dice, normal attacks:
Chance to roll below 10: 25.77% chance (expected 45%)
Chance to roll 10 or higher: 74.22% chance (expected 55%)
Chance to roll 15 or higher: 39.55% chance (expected 25%)
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veteran
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veteran
Joined: Sep 2020
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Thanks all for these interesting analyses! In conclusion, having Advantage almost perfectly counteracts the effects of Karmic Dice, except you get less crits.
For all other distributions, Karmic Dice seems to raise the average roll by 2, making it less likely that you'll roll numbers below ~9. I’ve got a bit confused in amongst all the data whether this is the case for our party, enemies or both? And whatever the answer, I guess the next question is whether this is what it is supposed to do? Do we actually know for sure? I think I recall in a PfH Larian said they introduced it partly in the hope that players who reloaded on failed checks might be able to use it to reduce save scumming, and I think someone else mentioned it was partly in response to players complaining they missed too frequently. I guess increasing the average roll for PCs and allies would be one way of addressing that, though not necessarily the best. And I guess extending the same advantage to enemies would be karmic, if that’s what is happening! Good question. The data from @Hrungr is the AI rolling against the player. I'm not sure what rolls @DragonSnooz recorded..?? I assume you just recorded all rolls, player or AI? If so, then the fact that DragonSnooz's rolls matched Hrungr's means that it seems to work the same for AI or player. I don't think Karmic dice is supposed to affect crits in this way. As I understand it, it originally was supposed to remove streaks, as players were unhappy at getting too many low rolls in a row (to be fair, Larian's original Patch 1-4 RNG system was actually bad). And then Larian changed it so that it would only act in the roller's favor (changing low rolls to high, but not vice versa). However, I couldn't figure out a simple way of creating a Karmic Dice distribution that actually matched the data...it certainly doesn't do any thing as simple as "if the previous roll was a 1-10, reroll and take the new result." The frequency of Karmic Dice rolls is:
1 0.0448
2 0.0292
3 0.0292
4 0.0375
5 0.0260
6 0.0333
7 0.0333
8 0.0333
9 0.0396
10 0.0573
11 0.0469
12 0.0469
13 0.0615
14 0.0500
15 0.0625
16 0.0583
17 0.0625
18 0.0729
19 0.0781
20 0.0969
Higher numbers are progressively more and more likely, except it's not a constant increase. There are jumps and , which may just be due to inherent randomness, or may be due to the actual code Larian is using. But it kind of looks like rolls from 2-8 have ~equal chances. And of course, the ~5% occurrence of natural 1s is an outlier.
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addict
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addict
Joined: Jan 2021
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Thanks all for these interesting analyses! In conclusion, having Advantage almost perfectly counteracts the effects of Karmic Dice, except you get less crits.
For all other distributions, Karmic Dice seems to raise the average roll by 2, making it less likely that you'll roll numbers below ~9. I’ve got a bit confused in amongst all the data whether this is the case for our party, enemies or both? And whatever the answer, I guess the next question is whether this is what it is supposed to do? Do we actually know for sure? I think I recall in a PfH Larian said they introduced it partly in the hope that players who reloaded on failed checks might be able to use it to reduce save scumming, and I think someone else mentioned it was partly in response to players complaining they missed too frequently. I guess increasing the average roll for PCs and allies would be one way of addressing that, though not necessarily the best. And I guess extending the same advantage to enemies would be karmic, if that’s what is happening! Good question. The data from @Hrungr is the AI rolling against the player. I'm not sure what rolls @DragonSnooz recorded..?? I assume you just recorded all rolls, player or AI? If so, then the fact that DragonSnooz's rolls matched Hrungr's means that it seems to work the same for AI or player. I don't think Karmic dice is supposed to affect crits in this way. As I understand it, it originally was supposed to remove streaks, as players were unhappy at getting too many low rolls in a row (to be fair, Larian's original Patch 1-4 RNG system was actually bad). And then Larian changed it so that it would only act in the roller's favor (changing low rolls to high, but not vice versa). However, I couldn't figure out a simple way of creating a Karmic Dice distribution that actually matched the data...it certainly doesn't do any thing as simple as "if the previous roll was a 1-10, reroll and take the new result." The frequency of Karmic Dice rolls is:
1 0.0448
2 0.0292
3 0.0292
4 0.0375
5 0.0260
6 0.0333
7 0.0333
8 0.0333
9 0.0396
10 0.0573
11 0.0469
12 0.0469
13 0.0615
14 0.0500
15 0.0625
16 0.0583
17 0.0625
18 0.0729
19 0.0781
20 0.0969
Higher numbers are progressively more and more likely, except it's not a constant increase. There are jumps and , which may just be due to inherent randomness, or may be due to the actual code Larian is using. But it kind of looks like rolls from 2-8 have ~equal chances. And of course, the ~5% occurrence of natural 1s is an outlier. Yes, it's all rolls from combat for my data set. (Player and Enemy) At the start of Patch 4 it was to reduce streakiness, but with Hotfix #10 it was changed to only reduce low rolls (or streaking low rolls I'm not sure). Also, with the way it was described in the Panel From Hell adds some confusion too. When I was recording the data, it felt like d20 outcomes below 10 were super rare.
Last edited by DragonSnooz; 30/12/22 06:49 AM.
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