Tears of the Kingdom is coming out this year also, and last time a LOZ game was nominated for game of the year it was stacked up against games like nier:autonoma, and won (unfairly, nier really deserved to win). To be quite honest, even with a lot of polish I don't think BG3 has much of a chance at winning unless the first act is the worst and the rest of game improves on it monumentally.