Tears of the Kingdom is coming out this year also, and last time a LOZ game was nominated for game of the year it was stacked up against games like nier:autonoma, and won (unfairly, nier really deserved to win). To be quite honest, even with a lot of polish I don't think BG3 has much of a chance at winning unless the first act is the worst and the rest of game improves on it monumentally.
Interesting you named 2 games I do not care about. Tears of Kingdom is a Nintendo game from Asia and I do not play Nintendo games to begin with. Nier Automana seems like a typical Action Asia game with some SCIFI RPG elements single player not interested in it.
I generally do not like Asian games unless they adapt it very much for Western market (but even then trend seems do not like), but now there are a couple of Asia MMO that I follow and one of them Throne of Liberty 3 (aka Lineage 3) with Unreal 5 graphics will be released this year 2023 and release date should be before BG3 full release date. The problem with MMO Throne of Liberty (Lineage 3) is that I am only slightly interested and there are many things unclear they have not even told how much pay to win and will it have subfee etc.
I believe this art is from Lineage II... when this music was posted on youtube then Lineage 2 had found its way to even Europe and USA. Well though clearly majority of players were from South Korea that is true.
Only time will tell if Throne of Liberty MMO aka LIneage 3 will have more success in Western markets. That said at least wise decision to use Unreal 5 engine for Throne of Liberty MMO aka LIneage 3. Well and if you look very closely at the features of face of woman in above video she looks like a beautiful woman from South Korea. I know this game have voluntary PvP, well you van avoid PvP by leaving area that has been set to be PvP area before PvP starts. What I do not like Open world Dungeons and Raids kind of feel they will be farmed by huge numbers of players that reduce PvE challenge.
If talking like modern times year 2020+ gaming then I gave Asian MMO:s Final Fantasy XIV and Genshin Impact a try not saying they are bad games, but they are not my taste or my cup of tea so I did quit playing them. Because you can try them for free. FInal Fantasy XIV is popular and has been said it is the Asian version of World of Warcraft MMO. I was curious why so many women players like Genshin Impact... well one answer to that is Genshin Impact MMO is very cute world though there is danger and your character can die in that game.
Perhaps if Final Fantasy XIV MMO would be totally free game I would play it still but as free player you can not access maximum level or maximum power that is impossible they have level cap for free players that is lower then paying players in FFXIV MMO.