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Originally Posted by Lake Plisko
Originally Posted by kanisatha
Skyrim's current sales figures are closing in on 50 million. Witcher 3 is well over 40 million. CP2077 closing in on 20 million. Even Obsidian's Grounded has sold over 10 million. Starfield will surely be in the same box as these games, sales-wise, though BG3 surely will not.

I am actually really interested to see how BG3 does sales wise. It's not exactly in a genre that is going to permit it to break any kind of crazy sales records (seems like you have to be mobile, child oriented, FPS or some big open world action title type thing) - but it is a pretty beloved franchise. Sven said sales were "insane" already and in October of 2020 it was reported that over a million copies had already sold.

I imagine it settles in somewhere between the 5 million and 10 million mark depending on how well received the actual release of the game is. I'm also curious what Larian would consider to be very successful given that the budget for BG3 has to be massive compared to D:OS2.
To beat DOS2 should be really easy it sold over 1 million so already 2 million sold and crystal clear win over DOS2.
My own brother warned me DOS2 is full of silly comedy that I do not like.

What brought me to forums is Dungeons and Dragons and well title BG3. Now Larian has very good reputation and DOS2 got excellent reviews and I am aware of that fact. Early Access in BG3 is excellent and not full of annoying comedy though well I laughed at one thing in Early access so far, but I will not spoil what issue. BG3 seems serious enough for my taste and seems to become excellent game. Now in BG3 multiplayer group gaming some player could rarely fuck up do mistakes and that could create funny situations and that is all fine in my book.

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Originally Posted by Lake Plisko
Originally Posted by kanisatha
Skyrim's current sales figures are closing in on 50 million. Witcher 3 is well over 40 million. CP2077 closing in on 20 million. Even Obsidian's Grounded has sold over 10 million. Starfield will surely be in the same box as these games, sales-wise, though BG3 surely will not.

I am actually really interested to see how BG3 does sales wise. It's not exactly in a genre that is going to permit it to break any kind of crazy sales records (seems like you have to be mobile, child oriented, FPS or some big open world action title type thing) - but it is a pretty beloved franchise. Sven said sales were "insane" already and in October of 2020 it was reported that over a million copies had already sold.

I imagine it settles in somewhere between the 5 million and 10 million mark depending on how well received the actual release of the game is. I'm also curious what Larian would consider to be very successful given that the budget for BG3 has to be massive compared to D:OS2.
Yeah, for me, BG3 would need to sell 10 M to be considered a true breakout hit in its genre. I believe it is at around 3 M right now, and 5 M is something many other games in this genre have been able to hit, such as DA:O. DA:I is over 10 M.

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I think BG3 will sell 10 million! celebrate I think it will sell at least as well as the Dragon Age games if not more.

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Originally Posted by Icelyn
I think BG3 will sell 10 million! celebrate I think it will sell at least as well as the Dragon Age games if not more.

I agree, I think people are woefully underestimating the potential of this title. The Platform alone is worth buying and if Larian or anyone else builds additional professionally done modules for the platform it would also really spur growth.

The Multiplayer is so fucking good it makes me angry. I want small, self-contained 5-6 hour adventures to do with a group, as well as LONG sprawling stuff that requires multiple sessions.


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Originally Posted by Blackheifer
[...] The Platform alone is worth buying and if Larian or anyone else builds additional professionally done modules for the platform it would also really spur growth.

The Multiplayer is so fucking good it makes me angry. I want small, self-contained 5-6 hour adventures to do with a group, as well as LONG sprawling stuff that requires multiple sessions.
Semi-related, but as BG3 isn't being updated for a while and doesn't have a DM mode, I've been getting my fix of multiplayer video game D&D 5e through user-created Solasta campaigns. There are a bunch of full campaigns out there, and probably even more shorter ones.

I've been enjoying The Forsaken Isle by Artyoan (allegedly 30 hours, level 1-12). Apparently it has a soft sequel - Morrows Deep - which is another full campaign.

I've heard good things about Against the Cult and short follow-up War of the Reptile God by pbalfe. These are apparently his conversions of the Against the Cult of the Reptile God adventure campaign for AD&D. The first one is level 1-11 (~25 hours), the second one is only level 11-12 (but still like 10 hours long).

I've heard good things about Interdimensional Escalations by _Defenestrator_. Another "up to 30 hour, level 1-12 campaign."

I did *not* enjoy Ruins of Illthismar by Silverquick, a ~30-40 hour, level 1-12 module. The combats had way too many enemies, making them a slog. There were multiple times where we faced 15+ orcs/goblins/soldiers in a combat, only to have the next combat also be 15+ (of the same) enemies. I abandoned it around level 6. Silverquick seems to specialize in old-school D&D modules/feel, as they've also adapted the AD&D module Temple of Evil and others. I haven't played that one either, but I've heard it has similar combats.

If anyone's had a positive or negative experience with those middle campaigns or others I didn't mention, let me know!

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Originally Posted by Icelyn
I think BG3 will sell 10 million! celebrate I think it will sell at least as well as the Dragon Age games if not more.
I am not convinced. It is not my wish it sells less then 10 million. That said can I have seen many youtube lists of best upcoming games in 2023. Roughly 50% of them do not mention Baldurs Gate 3 like it would not be among best titles for 2023.

Another problem while I love the engine Unreal 5 kind of puts in shadow even BG3 graphics despite BG3 is good looking.

It is not only about your personal Early Access experience. Marketing is a thing as well. It will beat no doubt DOS2 sales, but DOS 2 sold like roughly lol 1 million.
BG3 will perhaps sell several millions, but lets see if it can go up to 10 million and I have a feeling Hogwarts Legacy sales aka J.R Rowling woman hero is hard to beat. It has been silent now how Hogwarts Legacy sales currently go, but in 2 weeks it had sold over 12 million units.

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Originally Posted by Icelyn
I think BG3 will sell 10 million! celebrate I think it will sell at least as well as the Dragon Age games if not more.

I didn't realize DA:I sold ten million copies. I don't think it is a stretch for BG3 to surpass that then given the glowing reception to D:OS2 and how big of an IP Baldur's Gate is.

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I was curious to know how many people bought the EA, I remembered that it had exceeded Larian's expectations.

Not that Reddit is a good source, but the numbers in the article mentioned there for Steam are close to or above one million.
The number of people who buy into an EA might be indicative of broader reach when the game finally releases, or it might be most of the people who would buy are have, depending on if you think D&D and Baldur's Gate are niche properties or not.

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Originally Posted by Sozz
I was curious to know how many people bought the EA, I remembered that it had exceeded Larian's expectations.

Not that Reddit is a good source, but the numbers in the article mentioned there for Steam are close to or above one million.
The number of people who buy into an EA might be indicative of broader reach when the game finally releases, or it might be most of the people who would buy are have, depending on if you think D&D and Baldur's Gate are niche properties or not.
SteamDB has some approximations, here is BG3 :
[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]
Here are some other games for the record.
DOS 2 :
[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]
Pathfinder WotR :
[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]
Solasta :
[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]

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Originally Posted by snowram
SteamDB has some approximations, here is BG3 :
[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]
Here are some other games for the record.
DOS 2 :
[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]
Pathfinder WotR :
[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]
Solasta :
[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]

That's interesting, especially for a game that hasn't released yet. Considering Baldur's Gate and D&D have a lot more brand recognition, it probably bodes well for the full release. It also seems to have more 'reviews' than the other more recently released games. Even if most of the reviews are positive, being in Early Access for so long might make it difficult for them when they hype-blitz in August.

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Originally Posted by Sozz
That's interesting, especially for a game that hasn't released yet. Considering Baldur's Gate and D&D have a lot more brand recognition, it probably bodes well for the full release. It also seems to have more 'reviews' than the other more recently released games. Even if most of the reviews are positive, being in Early Access for so long might make it difficult for them when they hype-blitz in August.
If I had a cent for every time I heard "I am waiting for release", I would have quite a hefty sum of money. Release sales numbers are unpredictable at this point.

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Originally Posted by snowram
Originally Posted by Sozz
I was curious to know how many people bought the EA, I remembered that it had exceeded Larian's expectations.

Not that Reddit is a good source, but the numbers in the article mentioned there for Steam are close to or above one million.
The number of people who buy into an EA might be indicative of broader reach when the game finally releases, or it might be most of the people who would buy are have, depending on if you think D&D and Baldur's Gate are niche properties or not.
SteamDB has some approximations, here is BG3 :
[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]
Here are some other games for the record.
DOS 2 :
[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]
Pathfinder WotR :
[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]
Solasta :
[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]
I do not believe one second DOS2 have become even near 10 million. Anyone can go and write review of games never played.
https://videogamesstats.com/divinity-original-sin-2-facts/
Here it mentions DOS2 have reached 2 million sold and this was like after more then a year after DOS2 release.

It is true though that I am absolutely not PRO DOS2 and never have been fan of that game. Well and example me I could write review of DOS 2 on all those places and tell why I think it is bad game.

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Originally Posted by Terminator2020
I do not believe one second DOS2 have become even near 10 million. Anyone can go and write review of games never played.
This is based on Steam reviews, which you can't make unless you own the game on your account. The game has also been released on GoG, 3 consoles, and iOS for some reason. 10 millions doesn't sound that farfetched to me.

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Originally Posted by snowram
Originally Posted by Terminator2020
I do not believe one second DOS2 have become even near 10 million. Anyone can go and write review of games never played.
This is based on Steam reviews, which you can't make unless you own the game on your account. The game has also been released on GoG, 3 consoles, and iOS for some reason. 10 millions doesn't sound that farfetched to me.
DOS2 is in my subjective view bad game with silly comedy and does not change that fact for me.

On the other hand Skyrim reached 50 million sold and I complained to Kingdom come about Skyrim including example what is up with the freaking grey tone graphics in Skyrim? I did say something good about Skyrim like its low system requirements (you can play Skyrim even on mobile phones) and I said it is subjective taste what games people like.

I have not complained about Witcher 3 anything and I like it is for adults only.

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Originally Posted by Terminator2020
Originally Posted by snowram
Originally Posted by Terminator2020
I do not believe one second DOS2 have become even near 10 million. Anyone can go and write review of games never played.
This is based on Steam reviews, which you can't make unless you own the game on your account. The game has also been released on GoG, 3 consoles, and iOS for some reason. 10 millions doesn't sound that farfetched to me.
DOS2 is in my subjective view bad game with silly comedy and does not change that fact for me.

On the other hand Skyrim reached 50 million sold and I complained to Kingdom come about Skyrim including example what is up with the freaking grey tone graphics in Skyrim? I did say something good about Skyrim like its low system requirements (you can play Skyrim even on mobile phones) and I said it is subjective taste what games people like.

I have not complained about Witcher 3 anything and I like it is for adults only.
As someone who played Skyrim on release, back in 2011 it was really something. I guess it shows how far we've come in 11-12 years.
The reason Skyrim is aggressively grey is because each Elder Scrolls game has its own aesthetic. Oblivion (2006) was very brightly colored, high fantasy, Peter-Jackson-Tolkeinian aesthetic that bordered on the cartoonish (at least with the NPCs). Morrowind (2001) was deeply brown, red, swamp green, and almost alien in its aesthetic. Skyrim got the "everything is the far Northern part of Northern Europe" aesthetic end of the stick, which is very grey, tundra-like, and desaturated. I also think the "everything is dark and gritty and grey" aesthetic that came about somewhere in the 2000s had an impact.


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Originally Posted by Zerubbabel
Skyrim got the "everything is the far Northern part of Northern Europe" aesthetic end of the stick, which is very grey, tundra-like, and desaturated. I also think the "everything is dark and gritty and grey" aesthetic that came about somewhere in the 2000s had an impact.
This is especially funny to because Skyrim was THE game that popularized ENB. You couldn't avoid picture of bright and flashy modded Skyrim everywhere on the internet. Seems like even in the days of the "everything is dark and gritty and grey", people still wanted some eye candy.

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Skyrim isn't a game by a lot of people's standards - it's an "Interactive Experience". It's just not challenging at all, and that's fine. It has a lot of good points.

1. Open world
2. It doesn't force you to take any particular path - I've played for 300 hours and never finished it.
3. Its very much a blank canvas that people can superimpose their own ideas on. Mods have done some incredible work there.
4. It's Grandma friendly. Easy to play. Nothing complicated about controls.
5. It has great worldbuilding and lore.
6. You could run the base game on a potato. (this is super important, too many developers underestimate how much this matters - it's one of the reasons Vanilla WoW was so popular)
7. It has solid Voice acting.
8. It expertly incorporates cultural tropes that we romanticize.

It sold 50 Million copies.

Elden Ring was a nightmare experience of incredible fun that was highly cultivated to hardcore gamers and it sold 20 Million copies as of last month. It's almost like they appeal to different markets.

So what's BG3's market?


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BG3’s intended market seems to be equal parts people who like BG1 and 2, people who dig DnD Forgotten Realms stuff, and people who liked DoS.

Problem is…I have a feeling only one of those groups will be super pleased with the final game.

It may also snag some newbs…folks who like to try random rpgs or those looking for something new to play. Or those who miss pre-EA Bioware games and this is the closest they can get (I fall into this group).

I am very curious to see how it will do in sales after release.

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I think BG3 might also attract the rpg crowd, for example the people, who played Dragon Age or similar rpgs.


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Assuming BG3 gets decent reviews, it feels as though there are many groups who might at least take a closer look. Yes, old BG and D:OS fans but also as mentioned players of other RPGs like Skyrim and DA and fantasy MMOs, TTRPG players and and gamers who have enjoyed fantasy in other media (LoTR, GoT, etc). I’m sure that on closer inspection, many of those would decide BG3 wasn’t for them, but even if it could snag some of them then it feels as though there’s a large enough pool for it to sell decently.

And, as been said, if there’s good mod support, additional multiplayer modules, plus ongoing enhancement of the game through DLC and expansions, it has the potential to keep selling solidly for some time after release.

I do suspect that the game’s ability to reach a wider audience is going to come down to how good - and loud - the critical response to full release is. I am choosing to take as positive signs that BG3 was number one on this PC Gamer list of most anticipated games in 2023, that what EA reviews I’ve seen have been positive, and because folk will have a good idea of what they’re getting from EA there’s not the same level of risk as some other games of being a disappointment when reviewers get their hands on it. I’ve not spent a lot of time reading other anticipated games lists or EA reviews, though, so it’s possible the ones I’ve come across aren’t representative.


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