Ok, I now have the impression that wherever we choose to go, the story will unfold smoothly... I might be wrong but this is the impression I have. So my choices now have different motives than being a good detective.
So I chose Trident Lane for 2 reasons : 1/ Wow this dagger !... Identify ? Maybe a magic item !! (unlikely but I try my luck...) 2/ Would it be possible that the weaponsmith is a ... warforge ? Let's see !