Grom went into the weaponsmithy asking for a dagger designed to be used in ritual bloodletting, Rourke says the murder weapon for the butcher and Insight Park was likely the same, I'm not sure if that should be taken at face value, but there it is, meaning that the dagger wasn't used for them. There is the possibility that the dagger was just used for the flaying, and another murder weapon might show up. I still don't think the Dragonborn body was moved after the fact, though it's possible they flayed him at the cemetary wrapped him up in canvas, left the dagger behind before moving the corpse across the bay, but the game has led us to believe the body could have been dumped anywhere in the river and found its way to the beach. All this is just to call into question the link between the Sewer Keep and the Dragonborn. Our other link with the Guild, Magpie, is also tenous since we've decided that our second meeting with him was actually Fel. Going to Eastway Expeditions might bring up a link between the Guild and Selwyn, and the Meat Market Murders, but I'm still not sure.
Rourke's flight is corroborated by the guards at the Seatower. Though, through Eastway Expeditions isn't except by the game. It's interesting that the game gives you leads on Rourke, but if he's really leaving tomorrow, what will they avail us unless we can't stop him from absconding.