An asterisk is that Larian has seemingly made stealth updates to their rng systems with certain patches, so the data from the reddit post may be out of date.
And it is possible that they coded Karmic Die so that it takes the enemy AC into account - e.g., Karmic Die tries to ensure that you on average have a 65% to-hit, regardless of your to-hit bonus and the enemy AC. (Although this effect is also achieved by rerolling misses).
I might have---or be able to find---various raw datasets (most of them pre-patch 10) that I've collected from others if you want..? Let me know if so and I'll try to make time to search for them.
