Originally Posted by mrfuji3
Also, my analysis of these-plus-other rolls is that Karmic Dice works similarly to Advantage (unless you roll a natural 1, in which case that result stands). Effectively, the Karmic Dice system gives you an X% chance to reroll if you miss attack, which obviously happens more often against higher AC creatures.

This is supported by the detail that, when using Karmic Dice while making attacks at Advantage, it doesn't give any significant benefit.

Originally Posted by mrfuji3
960 Normal Karmic Attack Rolls
Is inconsistent with a uniform distribution, showing too many 18s, 19s, and 20s, and too few 2s through 9s.
Average of 12.34 +/- 0.19, compared with an expected average of 10.5

224 Advantage Karmic Attack Rolls
Is overall statistically consistent with an Advantage distribution. However, there are 35% too few 20s, at 2.3-sigma.
Average of 13.96 +/- 0.28, compared with an expected average of 13.82.

224 Disadvantage Karmic Attack Rolls
Is statistically inconsistent with a Disadvantage distribution, with too few 1s through 4s.
Average of 9.45 +/- 0.37, compared with an expected average of 7.17.

With Karmic Dice, higher numbers are progressively more and more likely and on average results in a +2 bonus to your roll.
Having Advantage almost perfectly counteracts the effects of Karmic Dice, except you get less crits.
My guess is there is more to the algorithm the game uses when rolling those weighted dice than pure advantage or disadvantage. They're probably more along the lines of "advantage but..." and "disadvantage but...". My guess is they really don't want to give too big of an advantage or disadvantage and the neutral is likely still weighted just a little bit in favor of the player because a lot of people who are completely and utterly clueless about D&D will be playing this game and they'll already be in way over their heads just by virtue of not having any idea what they're doing or how to build their characters so just a little bit of help applied here and there because unlike being at a D&D table there will be no other knowledgeable people around to help them out, tell them how to set their characters up, etc.