Obsidian is kind of a weird one. They were often hired to make sequels to AAA games (NWN2, KotoR2, FalloutNV) but were never given the budget or resources they needed from their publishers. Their own projects were definitely in the AA space.
Regardless of what they were, they are now owned by Microsoft, so they are definitely going to be AAA now. MS didn’t buy them to publish moderate successes. If this will turn out well for them or not is to be seen. I’m always rooting for Obsidian, even if I don’t like a lot of their games. But they gave me New Vegas, which I love, so that earned them a lot of good will from me.