Based on interviews with Swen, or as I like to call them, Sventerviews, DOS1 sold around 2.5M, DOS2 sold around 3x that amount over its lifetime, so 7.5M. I think we could easily see BG3 hit those numbers by the end of the month at best, and by the end of the year at worst.
Now I don’t think BG3 will hit 3x the numbers of DOS2. I don’t think the market for this game is that big. But I do think it could easily hit a lifetime of 2x DOS2, or around 15M. This game is hitting around 6M in sales in its first two weeks, but that’s also including EA. Assuming diminishing returns as time goes on, I think 15M is the right lifetime Steam estimate, or around 900M USD in revenue.
