So there is another outcome that even has voice lines associated with it, but its a bit convoluted:
We are going to leverage some hired goons to not lose reputation with Alfira. We will also use the knowledge that helping Alfira is what triggers the sequence on the next long rest.
- Help Alfira with her song.
- Immediately return to camp.
- make room in your party for 2 hirelings, and hire them (i went with monk and barb, but really you just want bursty damage).
- Split your party. You should have your hirelings standing next to Alfira while your main characters are far away from town / at the camp.
- Turn on passive "Knock out" only mode.
- have your goons beat the hell out of Alfira quickly until she's taking a nap - ideally faster than the law notices what's going on.
- Go back to your main party and dismiss the two goons who did your dirty work.
- Long rest.
- allow the stand-in npc that shows up to stay.
- Have another character kill Durge.
- While Durge is dead, end the night.
Killing Durge in this sequence does a few things:
- Ensures you aren't the reason that the visitor dies
- No post-killing hiding or confronting the party dialogue
- Bypasses a bug where Scratch becomes hostile mid-cutscene.
- You might miss out on the cloak at this point.
When the butler arrives, he will talk about how this wasn't the way it was supposed to go.
You can still get the reward cloak if you don't kill Durge and allow this murder, but if you go that route I recommend delaying the recruitment of Scratch until after this sequence (he's bugged and becomes hostile).
Return to Alfira and she's back to working on her song and appears in the future everywhere she normally would. Because she was knocked out by 2 random goons instead of you, she's not mad at you and your reputation is undamaged.
Using any variation of disguise self should have the same effect a hirelings but without all the extra unnecessary steps and losing the gold. And you might as well let the Dark Urge do the deed with to the replacement to get the cloak because really there's no reason not to.
