I am calling it now:
-BG3 has definitely passed DOS2's lifetime sales by now, likely at 7.5M units minimum, being 85% of the VGI unit number. I highly doubt its Steam numbers are close to 10M in Steam sales, so I am sticking with the lower bound of the estimate and ignoring the higher. PS5 sales are probably solid though.
-The "generally favorable" performance of Starfield mostly takes it out of the running for GOTY. I expect its user reviews to be more Fallout 4 than Skyrim. I'm actually a bit shocked at some of the player feedback it's getting online. It's like people have never played a Bethesda game before. It looks to be a pretty good and original game too.
-GOTY 2023 is 50-50 chance to be BG3 or TOTK. In terms of critics, user reviews, Steam reviews, sales, and playerbase, BG3 is in a similar position now to Elden Ring last year, and Elden Ring won GOTY. Caveat: Elden Ring had stronger concurrent playerbase engagement and longevity. However, Elden Ring was in a very similar position to BG3, in that BG3 is put up against a far more popular game with more mainstream appeal, and Elden Ring was released within one month of God of War: Ragnarok, which also had more broad appeal. I lean towards TOTK being the likely GOTY for most publications/awards, but many may give it to BG3 because TOTK is mostly based on BOTW, which already won GOTY in 2017. BG3 is the "newer" experience.
-Larian's continuing support of BG3 will likely elevate its standing in the coming months, if only slightly. The next 3 months are critical for community engagement.
