I’ve been away for a month just quietly playing BG3, and I’d be surprised if it didn’t win.
The reaction to Starfield is a lot more tepid than I expected. Even my brother who is usually day 1 for Bethesda games held off on Starfield due to people mentioning how badly the game runs even on high end computers, because of something to do with how unoptimized it is for Nvidia graphics cards due to lacking a certain option or something.
In my mind GOTY is between Zelda and BG3 this year. If Starfield is in the contention at all, it’s probably far more likely to eat into the votes for Zelda since they’re both open world action RPGs.
