The big takeaway is that innovation and evolution matters. A game type should evolve with the times and seek to improve upon itself. Bethesda has made the same game for the last decade and a half.
My main questions right now follow:
1. Is Starfield truly underperforming? If so, is it for the reasons I think it is underperforming?
2. What are the long-term consequences of this relatively poor performance for Bethesda and other RPG studios?
3. What does the answer to the above two questions have to do with Larian?
4. How do we want developers like Larian and Bethesda to evolve their games?
This really cuts to the heart of the matter.
1. Is Starfield truly underperforming? If so, is it for the reasons I think it is underperforming? The figure that bethesda keeps touting is "
6 million" copies sold - and that it is "outperforming Skyrim" when it launched. Lets go ahead and use that number - despite qualms as to its accuracy.
The GLOBAL video game market was
65 Billion in 2011 when Skyrim came out. The video game market in
2022 -the last year we have figures for - was 183 Billion globally.Skyrim sold 7 Million units the first week it was shipped.
Conclusion:
Starfield is VASTLY underperforming in the 2023 game market and comparing it to Skyrim is just nonsense. Skyrim was much more successful compared to the size of the market.
2. What are the long-term consequences of this relatively poor performance for Bethesda and other RPG studios? Everyone who has a decent amount of business acumen will see that Starfield is getting torn to pieces despite Microsoft/Bethesda spending as much as a theatrical movie release on marketing. I doubt the game is even profitable yet and Todd can't hide this failure with his perma-press smile and pathological optimism. If Microsoft doesn't gut Bethesda and make major changes in the next year or two I will be shocked. This is such a monumental failure that it really can't be ignored.
MOST of the major studios are going to try to ignore that the market has changed. Some, like Blizzard, will likely continue to churn out trash that people will buy - Diablo was successful despite being a terrible game with really bad monetization. The smaller studios are paying careful attention and with Studios like Larian and FromSoftware out there getting major props it's got to hurt them to watch GOTY getting passed to better studios that have less resources.
3. What does the answer to the above two questions have to do with Larian? Larian is at a crossroads right now. Most people don't see it but I don't think the WOTC partnership worked out very well. I put this 100% on WOTC, Hasbro is the kind of company that is too capitalistic in it's guiding ideologies and I am 100% sure they are the reason we don't have more robust mod tools.
This is unfortunate because if WOTC/Hasbro just relaxed a bit on the need to control 3rd party use of their license they could really open up the D&D CRPG market with exclusive titles and free marketing from adoring fans. They seem to be intentionally ignoring how D&D gets marketed to new players - and that is mostly through third party creators, word of mouth and use of the platform in media and at events. Shit, Harmontown alone probably brought in tens of thousands of new players and that is one niche media thing that Dan Harmon does for shits and giggles. Critical Role has probably brought in hundreds of thousands.
I really don't want Larian going back to the Divinity ruleset, because I think it's not as good as the 5e system. There is no reason that a story can't be adapted to any ruleset or world - for the most part. So we will have to see what happens there.
BG3 has been WOTC's biggest success in a string of failures and they need to pay attention to that - I support Larian holding the line though on the 3rd party stuff.
4. How do we want developers like Larian and Bethesda to evolve their games?Bethesda needs to be stripped down to its core, they need to purge the salespeople from the executive, get the creative people back in charge and maybe show Todd his retirement package. Then they might be able to start really creating new games. Bethesda needs to deliver a better core product for their modders to build on and do more to incorporate great mods into the core platform. 4 Editions of Skyrim and they never did this - managing a package of 40-60 mods is a goddamn nightmare and it shouldn't be a requirement to enjoy the game.
Larian needs to hold to their values and not blink. If we need to go back to Divinity before WOTC wakes up to the opportunity they have then so be it.
