Yeah I feel like there's a perfectly serviceable, even a pretty cool, story under the hood but it has all these needlessly convoluted details on top. Unshaven Occam ass plot.
I disagree with the sentiment that it's "convoluted" or "needlessly complex" - I actually think that the story of BG3 is quite well balanced in the amount of different setups, risks and payoffs there are, but the consistency in which it was written is what is hurting the story. Say, if Emperor would actually embrace being Balduran - that wouldn't make anything more complicated, in fact, it'd make the story much easier to consume as Balduran is a character that many within the Baldur's Gate universe know about and can relate to. If anything, him not embracing Balduran actually makes it more complicated - you start asking questions such as "Why wouldn't he assume the form of Balduran as the Dream Visitor? Why wouldn't he alert Stelmane about the presence of a dormant Mind Flayer colony under Moonrise? Why is he so inept at building trust with and understanding the motivations the BG3 gang when he can read the minds of everyone involved?" That is what creates these "needlessly complex" plots, because a lot of the holes have to be filled by the consumer instead of the writer.