Larian Studios Forums Baldur's Gate III Baldur's Gate III - General Great Steam Numbers

But- but- I was super-good at math even in kindergarten. What about people like me?!!

[Absolutely love your analogy ]

Acting like CRPG-specific sales figures don't matter is disingenuous. Wizards finally agreed to let Larian have BG3 based on the success of D:OS2.

Unless you're going to argue that D:OS2 had figures on par with modern AAA releases which I highly doubt.

DOS2 had a lifetime sales of 7.5M units I think. That might just be Steam though. Larian will be hitting those numbers very soon for BG3, if they haven't already, on Steam alone.

I don't know. I feel like the sales of BG3 surpass kindergarten mathematics. It's weird. The game is doing very well with sales. It's undeniable. But for all that success, there are folks scoffing, as if the numbers aren't impressive given this or that condition. Again, it's just weird. It doesn't come across as legitimate, but rather as simple, ugly hate.

You didn’t understand what I wrote. BG3 is doing amazing sales and I love this game.

Having the best math skills in a kindergarten class is a reference to how BG3 being the most successful CRPG isn’t saying much because it has no real competition, and therefore, is a low benchmark to beat.

Of course, if you don't like someone's very legitimate point, it must be "hate."

Gentlemen, gentlemen, let us converse in harmony!

It is both rational to frame the sales in a more pessimistic manner to understand the lower bound of implications, and rational to frame sales in an optimistic manner to understand the upper bound of implications. Both are important for forecasting future possibilities, as nothing is truly inevitable in this world (barring death and taxes).

Anyway, VG Insights is better than Steam Spy and I checked their methodology and it’s better than Spy. Belgian Embassy’s number was very close to VGI. Right now, VGI has BG3 at 8m units, but has a standard deviation of 15% for 84% of its prior predictions, so, taking a pessimistic angle, 6.8M units sold is quite reasonable. Sales could be anywhere from 6.8 to 9.2. It is indeed no small feat for a CRPG, and a solid showing for a triple A game, but CRPGs tend to underperform, and BG3 is currently somewhat average by AAA standards.

The best way to frame the current sales numbers is not as a historical moment in video games, or a forgettable nothing burger, but as a decisive win for Larian Studios specifically.

"Or we could yell louder. That works, too."

*

Anyway, selling copies in the millions isn't the same as the best kindergartener at math. I get the point; it's a twist on a somewhat old joke. I understand kindergarten mathematics isn't a high bar, and I get that the same is being said of the crpg market.

However, it's like saying professional mathematician who's about average in the highly qualified field he's in is also the best at mathematics when compared to kindergartners.

It's a fine comment if it's meant to highlight that the crpg market tends to be on the lower end of sales, but a legitimate point about the success of BG3, it is not.

I do not think Warlocke is hating on the game.

I can't, however, say the same for everyone. Some of the comments are bending over backwards trying to frame success into failure. On one hand, it doesn't bother me all that much. On the other, it's just so obnoxious. In my opinion.

I am calling it now:

-BG3 has definitely passed DOS2's lifetime sales by now, likely at 7.5M units minimum, being 85% of the VGI unit number. I highly doubt its Steam numbers are close to 10M in Steam sales, so I am sticking with the lower bound of the estimate and ignoring the higher. PS5 sales are probably solid though.

-The "generally favorable" performance of Starfield mostly takes it out of the running for GOTY. I expect its user reviews to be more Fallout 4 than Skyrim. I'm actually a bit shocked at some of the player feedback it's getting online. It's like people have never played a Bethesda game before. It looks to be a pretty good and original game too.

-GOTY 2023 is 50-50 chance to be BG3 or TOTK. In terms of critics, user reviews, Steam reviews, sales, and playerbase, BG3 is in a similar position now to Elden Ring last year, and Elden Ring won GOTY. Caveat: Elden Ring had stronger concurrent playerbase engagement and longevity. However, Elden Ring was in a very similar position to BG3, in that BG3 is put up against a far more popular game with more mainstream appeal, and Elden Ring was released within one month of God of War: Ragnarok, which also had more broad appeal. I lean towards TOTK being the likely GOTY for most publications/awards, but many may give it to BG3 because TOTK is mostly based on BOTW, which already won GOTY in 2017. BG3 is the "newer" experience.

-Larian's continuing support of BG3 will likely elevate its standing in the coming months, if only slightly. The next 3 months are critical for community engagement.

So, according to VG Insights BG3 sold in 10.2M units on Steam alone. This is a huge, HUGE success. I've been told that sales data reported by VG Insights is ~95% accurate.

To emphasize how big of a result this is, here are some other Steam numbers for comparison:
- Starfield - 2.7M
- Cyberpunk 2077 - 19.3M (13M within its first day of release)
- Hogwarts Legacy - 6.6M

The hype for CP2077 and Hogwarts Legacy (not to mention Starfield) was much higher than for BG3, and it still sold much better on Steam than those AAA titles. And Cyberpunk sold less than twice the number of copies than BG3 in less than 3 years!

I super happy with the result and hope this will encourage Larian to make a big DLC or BG4 in the future.

I think they're still going to keep lighting it up like crazy in a couple months time here, when the Holidays roll around.

It was a smart play to drop before the Summer ended probably. Got a couple solid months in for the PC when people have more time to dive in. Tears of the Kingdom is really cool as well, and BotW fully deserved the crown in 2017, but I agree with people who've pointed out that being a console exclusive is sorta too exclusive, and that's a definite malus for a second time around. Also 59.99 is a pretty great price for BG3! 2 people can't even go out to the movies for one night on that sorta dime these days. Meanwhile this game has kept me busy for entire calendar years already lol. I know it's not quite the same to count the EA but just to say that it probably took like 5 years for me to want to replay BotW a second time. Like you don't really beat a Zelda game and then immediately start over to try and beat it again. But BG3 has that in spades for me. So that's maybe a bit of a factor as well, or one would think.

I hope for a nice juicy Expansion too or a 4th entry in the series!

ps. I bet if they land with Japan by the New Year that makes a big difference. I forgot to even look at that, but like won't there be a disc and a dub? If there's a disc by the time of New Year's then yeah, I mean a pretty solid coin toss, you gotta figure.

pps. to the below ⬇ I love that last thought and the window! that's the one!

While sales numbers are important for the company to keep up development or do new development, these numbers to me are not the big factor. BG3 has changed the conversation when it comes to CRPGs and the RPG genre in general.

The last time we saw a game cross genre and work it's way into the world outside of gaming was Skyrim. Skyrim brought an extra spark to the world of RPGs and generated a lot of interest in the genre outside of those that typically play. BG3 is having a very similar impact and goes further as it is creating stir in who a game should be made and released.

BG3 was not and is not perfect, there were issues but compared to most launches it was VERY clean. Additionally Larian made a claim that has created some noise, NO EXTRA COSTS. Thats a big deal, especially when you have Cyberpunk coming back to the well so long after launch and Starfield already discussing a launch window for DLC.

Larian has a window right now it could capitalize on. Announce a new adventure. A full campaign that would be an alternative campaign for BG3. Use the existing engine and make at the start of the game you choose an Adventure based on which you want to play. This is not DLC or micro transaction, it is in essence another game without the need for full development or cost. THIS to me is the future of RPGs. You keep adding new adventures, maybe do engine updates. You build the gamer a library of adventures for them to go back to again and again.

Starfield has sold over 10 million, as officially confirmed by Bethesda in a public release a few days ago. And CP2077 crossed 20 million many months ago (long before the release of Phantom Liberty, which is being widely hailed and praised), also as confirmed by CDPR. So ... whatever. <shrug>

Read the release again, they claimed to have crossed 10 million "players". Remember the big numbers from Starfield are coming from Game Pass subscriptions. This makes sense because your paying $9 a month for a game library and Starfield is just included in the list, basically free if your paying anyway for other games. Based on Steam numbers the sales for the game is much slower than Bethesda would have you believe from the data.

In truth however this was EXACTLY what Microsoft wanted, Starfield has driven up Game Pass subscriptions. I know quite a few people that paid for one month just to try out Starfield and maybe a few other games and then let the subscriptions lapse. I know others that found other games and are doing a second month now or that enjoy Starfield and just kept the subscription.

BG3 did not have this subscription model to "pad" their numbers. Also consider that Starfield launched on Game Pass and Steam at the same time. BG3 launched on PC (GOG and STEAM) and then a month later on PS5 and a month later on Apple and still has not launched on XBOX. Yet BG3 has been ahead of Starfield in Steam sales (using Steams charts) most days since Starfield launched and has always had more players daily.

I did mention those are only Steam numbers, didn't I? I am perfectly aware that Starfield sold mostly on Game Pass.

GamePass absolutely counts as "sales" for a game. That's the whole point of having GamePass. Excluding people playing the game on GamePass hugely unfairly biases comparions made of games that are in GamePass.

As for BG3 sales, I am perfectly comfortable in making the assertion that its sales are hugely driven by all the graphic nudity and gratuitous sex. My very conservative estimate would be that 50% of BG3 sales have been based on the nudity and sex. So that's why I shrug at BG3 sales numbers, am not at all impressed by or care about them, and don't at all see any relevance therein to other RPGs or RPG developers.

Of course Gamepass counts. People are still playing the game. And if people signed up for it to just to play Starfield all the more reason for it to count.

It's not even close to the same thing on a spreadsheet.

We also don't know the number of people who started to play it on Gamepass then ended up buying it.

I've done that a few times.

Ha! You know actual porn is free on the interwebs right?

"I bought it for the cartoon porn...best $60 I ever spent" LOL