I just want to jump in quickly with few details that OP has mistaken on the original post, just to make it more precise.
Ansur's death was not sudden, at least that is not what Ansur says. It seems Ansur and the Emperor had a talk and a back and forth under the Fortress (Emperor trying to convince Ansur that he was FINE and it was GREAT being illithid), and Ansur felt like he had to kill the Emperor for the sake of the city and for the sake of Balduran himself. They fought, Ansur lost.
Gortash is sold off by his parents (who are cobblers and needed money) to Raphael when he was a kid. The original post makes it seem like he was sold to Raphael when he was already into politics, which came much later. In fact, he first started smuggling infernal enhanced items as an arms dealer, and from there spread into many branches of businesses (including innovations, that led to the Steel Watchers later on) and politics afterwards.
I also have a doubt, that I'm not sure anyone picked on:
1. There are some documents in the Shar enclave in Baldurs Gate that mention a group of people from there going on a mission to steal the Astral Prism from the Nautiloid for Shar. There are several names/roles and the last one is Shadowheart/healer. Is there anymore to this? Was it just a random heist for Viconia?
2. Karlach seems to board the nautiloid while it traverses the hells. She is being pursued by Wyll who sees her enter the nautiloid and goes after her. Playing as Karlach, you don't wake up in a pod, but on the ground beside a dead mindflayer that you clearly killed. But she does get tadpoled. How? When? I mean, there had to be someone to put the tadpole into her eye and I assume the dead illithid wasn't the one. Also hard to imagine how to do it with her running around fighting in the nautiloid. Is there more info on this?
3. Then there is the general ideal that the companions were somehow chosen to bear the special tadpoles. I would understand that the special tadpoles were put on those who were "pre-selected" somehow (abducted intentionally), but how would it work for companions that oopsied into the nautiloid?