Well, I tried pushing for more approval but the highest I can get it in Act 2 now without doing either Araj or Yurgir is 91.
91 was not enough to proc the conversation from high approval.
Discontent with Araj's version of the conversation (and now curious), reloaded to before it and went into the temple to talk Yurgir to death.
After Raphael closed the quest Astarion was at 97, Astarion's talk happened the night after Raphael's.
And THIS was the conversation I remembered having the first time I romanced Astarion (and I agree it feels much better than the one Araj proc's).
Judging from my previous save (which for my sanity I loaded again: 76 approval, had not visited Moonrise yet, and had not killed Yurgir yet), it seems like it used to be significantly easier to activate this conversation naturally.
I definitely think they could stand to bump it back down to like an 80+ range.