Self-reliance is a virtue! I was reading about this on <
https://www.ign.com/wikis/baldurs-gate-3/Karmic_Dice_Explained>, and it looks like Karmic Dice is meant to reduce the likelihood of rolling a streak of critical hits or misses. To do this, it is not a matter of changing the probability distribution for a single dice roll, such as Gaussian vs. Poisson, etc., but rather it must be some sort of conditional probability function, where the successive rolls are no longer independent of each other.
My guess is that if you roll a 20 the first time, then that goes into memory. If you then roll a 20 again, that sends up a flag which forces a re-roll before the player ever sees the result, and thus there is much less of a chance of getting two 20's in a row in the game. And you can do this for any dice value "x", not just 20. Karmic Dice = streaks have disadvantage. Did I guess correctly, Larian?
Unfortunately I can not quote the source since I forgot it, but the conclusion was that Karmic Dice does not count "rolls", it counts "outcomes" - so you can not have streaks of "failures" or "successes".
It greatly trivializes character progression and makes enemies OP. For example: with Karmic Dice ON your AC does not matter. The enemies will still be hitting and missing you more or less the same amount of times. Making your AC high won't matter because the the Dice will balance out enemy's failures to hit you. Whereas with the Dice OFF, the higher your AC - the higher the chance for enemies to fail to hit you.
It works the same way with skill checks. Why stack proficiency, expertise and ability bonus in Persuasion if you will still be low rolling those checks just for the purpose of failing them to balance out your high success rate. Whereas with Dice OFF, the higher your skill modifiers, the more likely you are to succeed any given check.
Turn it off and forget about it. Yes, you will fail the skills you are not proficient with and you won't land those 10% chance CC. But at the same time you wont critical miss on stunned enemies and won't fail those 20 DC checks while having +16 skill modifiers.
