Long term I can't say which game will be the more successful one. On the one hand Cyberpunk 2077 screwed it's chances for GOTY because of it's bad release, but has made 1.5 billion+
Bg3 had the better release, but has a more niche audience. It's hard to say if it will outpace Cyberpunk 2077 financially but it will almost certainly win GOTY.
Everything CD Projekt does will be more popular as long as Larian stick to making, what is at heart, a CRPG. They've given it a cinematic lick of paint, their systemic gameplay makes for really funny videos going viral too -- and let's not forget that CoOp neither Ultima nor Baldur's Gate 1+2 had in quite the same ways. But it's still what it is.
But that's fine! CD Projekt already exists... =) a CRPG on contemporary AAA budgets until recent not so much. The funny thing to me is that Bioware's Dragon Age:Origins was already pretty much "streamlined" back then in a bid to reach a broader audience than Baldur's Gate had reached (3 classes, less spells, less... everything... the console releases even had the RtwP combat further actionified). The sequels to Origins went a couple steps further each, which lead to people like Brent Knowles opposing the simple action combat in DA II leaving. Whereas BG3 didn't do the same streamlining near as much -- and is still eyeing at least Inquisition numbers, which was also released on far more platforms.
Mind you, no doubt there are quite a few people picking up BG3 precisely because Bioware hasn't done much of anything in years now... in particular in terms of presentation, it's basically Dragon Age all over. I wonder what were to happen if the game wasn't based on D&D (and Baldur's Gate). But on Harry Potter, Lord Of The Rings or Star Wars. Still personally don't expect much to massively change on the CRPG market though, mind. But maybe all that "streamlining" will slow down or stop some, making each entry in each series much simpler than the past one for many years, as studios are afraid to alienate anyone (and budgets keep getting higher and higher). It's not merely Larian after all, more recent it was FromSoftware too opposing that trend -- and still selling (and making) the games they make.
Still personally don't expect much to massively change on the CRPG market though, mind. But maybe all that "streamlining" will slow down or stop some, making each entry in each series much simpler than the past one for many years, as studios are afraid to alienate anyone (and budgets keep getting higher and higher). It's not merely Larian after all, more recent it was FromSoftware too opposing that trend -- and still selling (and making) the games they make.