There was an interview with Josh Sawyer where he said he would be up for doing PoE3 if he had BG3’s budget! Microsoft has lots of money, so maybe now that BG3 is a huge hit, they will let him! Just hopefully not in 1st person!
BG3's team was multiple times bigger than the entirety of Obsidian...
(Well, at its peak of development, including all contractors, etc., not for six years running) Plus, back with Deadfire their assumption was that, if they would improve on the first game and included full voice overs, they'd sell even more copies than POE1. The same as Larian had done with DOS2 coming from DOS1. But Deadfire didn't do that (the game sold some in the long run, but upon release there was major disappointment at Obsidian HQ). I'd like to see a conclusion to that Watcher's story myself. But a smaller scale game seems more likely -- IIRC several staff a couple years back at also voiced interest in going back. Microsoft seems to support such too (see Pentiment).
Josh Sawyer seems rather picky about his projects in general now, and I can relate to that, as even smaller ones take several years off your life. He's already achieved all his dream projects he wanted to tackle: 1) Working on a D&D game (Icewind Dale+NWN, check). 2) Working on a Fallout Game (New Vegas, check). Plus doing a historical game (Pentiment, check). So... it sounds a bit tongue in cheek also for him to say that he'd do a POE3 -- but only on BG3's budgets. He likely knows that's just not gonna happen. Perhaps even moreso if Avowed becomes a hit. Obsidian management had always voiced the interest of using the IP for a more Skyrim-like project. The thinking on the business side seemed to be very quickly after POE1 was a success that: "Our very own successful IP + Skyrim = $$$$$$$$$$$$."
But who knows.
