I really liked both PoE 1 and 2. Clearly there is *some* built in audience for PoE 3. So... I wonder if the correct call on this is to make it on a small budget rather than a large one.
If you make a game on BG3 budget you'd better sell it like BG3. Maybe they could do that with PoE3, but I would not bet that way. On the other hand, PoE 3 might succeed wildly as a low budget niche game. Ditch the voice acting and possibly even scale down the graphics. Tell a story without all the bells and whistles of a AAA game. I would buy it.
Yeah, this is my take as well. Very few BG3 fans have been willing to acknowledge and conceed the most important and central fact about BG3's sales success: that BG3 has 15 million D&D TT fans out there as an already built-in base of fans who would buy the game (and then plus additional fanbases such as cRPG fans and Larian game fans who don't overlap with the D&D fanbase). Other cRPG franchises such as PoE simply do not have that HUGE built-in advantage. So, even a PoE3 that is made with the MONSTER budget of BG3 and all of BG3's bells and whistles is very unlikely to record BG3-like sales because ... no D&D fanbase to count on.
Put very bluntly, no non-D&D AAA cRPG will ever have (even the possibility of) BG3-like sales success. Never ever.