That probably means that we don't get PoE 3.
Probably, but not necessarily. Everybody in the industry took notice of BG3. It shows this model can be successful. That makes it seem less risky. If anybody can convince MS to give them the budget to make this sort of game, it’s Obsidian.
No, there is no "model" in BG3 for others to follow. The only model is BG3 being a D&D game. Without that there's nothing else for any other studio to "follow." And in fact, in his comments, Sawyer very clearly talks about the many problems and weaknesses of BG3 that he would want to avoid or fix in any PoE3 game. The only "pluses" from BG3 he really brought up were designing combat encounters with TB combat in mind (though he also clearly said he would retain the option of both TB and RTwP in the game, which would be a HUGE improvement over BG3 right there), and including AAA cinematics.
We had that discussion a few times, kani, but I still think, this is subjective - you don't like BG3 at all, so of course, you wouldn't see it as a role model, I like the game and would hope, that other studios would follow the lead tbh. I like PoE, but it never sucked me in like BG3 did.
I was drawn into the story, I like the characters (apart from Halsin) and I was throughly entertained by the game. Could the third act need a bit of polishing? Yes, of course. But it is still fun. And I think, Warlocke meant, that the industry saw with the success of BG3, that crpgs are a market if done well - which (since I can already see you disagreeing :-D) does mean something different for you and for me ... well, not exactly, since I like the games, you like and BG3 on top of it.
I do think, as someone nearly exclusevly playing crpgs and none other type of game, that the success of BG3 will help that game type - and maybe will make a PoE3 possible.