I think BG3 has the award locked in. This forum tends to attract people with strong criticisms, justified or not, but if you take a cursory glance at most other forums, like the Starfield subreddit, you find near unanimous love for BG3 and players lamenting that their game wasn’t more like this in some way or another.

Good for Larian. They put a lot of work and passion into this game, and they deserve recognition. Winning a GotY award in a year that saw so many major releases is doubly impressive.