This reads like a sound analysis. But I fear 'fixing the plot' is out of the question at this point. What should be possible is for Larian to learn from their mistakes, for their next games. They should make damn sure that they have a good backbone for the story in place, next time. It should be good enough to withstand and enable all story branches that are added, changed and removed later on.
Nothing will change in their next game with all the simps praising BG3. What BG3 has shown is that you do not need a good story for RPGs. Just pack waifus and genital customizations in and you are done.
While I agree with your conclusion at many levels I think it is a bit harsh. BG3 has a decent story, the base premise is actually kind of interesting, The issue is they abandon that base premise by the end of act one. This is a lesson they should take to heart going forward, stay with the plot. Throwing curves is all well and good but outright ignoring or abandoning the basic premise of the story is not a plot twist, it is just bad writing.
BG3 did get me back to my first love in computer gaming, RPGs. Not the new single character first/third person crap, but the group dynamic deeper game. This has been wonderful for me to enjoy but has really shown the flaws of BG3 glaringly to me. Right now I am knee deep into Kingmaker. BG3 wins on pure polish no doubt. However when directly compared to Kingmaker I feel like BG3 is a mile wide and 1" deep. So much effort was put into "relationships" that the story feels like it suffered for it. While Kingmaker might not have the romancing of BG3 I still find myself invested in some companions. Linzi is the little sister always following you around, getting in the way and yet you love her dearly. Valerie is a steadfast friend that you know will ALWAYS have your back, so you make sure you always have hers. Tristian is the eternal optimist that annoys as much as he uplifts you. Just looking at those three you might not see any sex interests but you already see way more depth of relationships.
Larian, it appears with hindsight, took the easy way out for this. They made use of the Baldur's Gate name and used the existing successful game mechanics and then crafted around those things. Instead of delving deep on the main storyline they use distractions with relationships (sexual not deeply meaningful) to try and gloss over the story inconsistencies.
Even thought I am going hard at them, I think Larian crafted a solid game. Was it worth of GOTY awards, well look at what it had to go against. Let's face it they did not have stiff competition this year. Starfield and Diablo both FLOPPED. In context of this year I think yes they deserved the awards they go.
My hope and prayer however is that Larian is self aware enough to know they can and should do better. That they can move forward and take this attention and yes cash to craft better. My concern is that you, Ixal, have summed up the lesson Larian and others will take from this and we will see our beloved genre damaged as others pile on the easy street bandwagon to create tripe.
