If it helps a way to know if Alfira is about to come to camp is also through Raphael, so I like to play a certain way the first 4 in-game days to not lose any camp scenes;
- Day 1 - Clear out everything prior to the Grove's introductory scene and then sleep before triggering it (so it doesn't skip the pre-Grove camp scene)
- Day 2 - Do everything at the Grove while ignoring Auntie Ethel/Nettie/Sazza and then sleep (so it doesn't skip the 2nd set of camp scenes about the symptom inspections)
- Day 3 - Talk to all 3 healers (Nettie, Sazza, Auntie Ethel) to update the cure quest and sleep again (so it doesn't skip the camp scenes about the group disbanding after finding a cure)
- Day 4 - Triggering Alfira's arrival - Raphael will show up (either by going to Alfira, the bridge outside of Blighted Village or the top of the spider cliff overlooking the Nautiloid). Once he shows up Alfira is guaranteed to show up at the camp.
- However she can be delayed one extra night by recruiting Karlach because Karlach and Wyll's scene take priority over hers.
For knocking her out; I just have Lae'zel disguise herself,
Bless herself with Volo's ring and smack Alfira twice from behind with the burning blade. Works every time
