Started a new playthrough after about a month away. My usual approach is as follows:
1) Take out Gut cleanly and quietly by hitting her with the Silence spell;
2) Make my way into the farthest room to the left of the Ragzlin's area and clean out the three jabberers there;
3) Go into the next room to remove the trash (and free that one goblin just because);
4) Throw barrels at Ragzlin - or, rather, throw fire at barrels that have been subtly and mysteriously placed in front of Ragzlin.
At all stages, I'm careful to close doors, watch patrols, etc. The usual result was that I could clear all four areas without alerting anyone, and walk into Minthara's area with no one being the wiser. Now, though, at stages 2-4, I'm pretty much guaranteed to get "caught" no matter what I do, usually by someone well out of attack range and guaranteed to reach a wardrum before I can snipe it.
Did something change in the "got caught/arrested" system? Granted, it was wonky before, but now I'm lucky to step into Ragzlin's room without getting immediately attacked.