while you have to match several prerequisites to achieve the Yurgir version.
To be fair, that didn't use to be the case. At least in my case, when I still knew nothing about full release, it happened fairly naturally: I had high approval, I rested at Moonrise Towers, boom: confession scene. I think Yurgir being a trigger is worse, IMO, and IDK why it was changed.
The reasoning for why this one is the failsafe is, from what I could gather, that Araj was put there on purpose to explore Astarion's issues with consent and autonomy and using himself, which I guess isn't as evident for the Yurgir version? He still talks about it, I suppose. What I don't like about Araj's version is that you can miss that he says that that was an issue with you, or that he used you. Still, I'd rather move on from that as to not cross into topics about Astarion's romance which are already explored on other threads.
I forgot to say earlier that yes, the impression I got from Madame Fel back when the EA datamines were coming out was that she was some sort of supernatural entity allied with the Gur. I've datamined the current game and Madame Fel effectively became Ulma, and the Madame Fel flags are still there.
My theory back then was that Madame Fel was long-lived because of... whatever she was, and had been alive to see Astarion's ruling that got him killed, hence that part of his past would've been addressed because she knew of it and disliked it. It was nice to imagine how things could've turned out in EA.