Starting fight against coffin skeletons outside mirror with Necromancy of Thay.

Hit 81%
critical miss, nope, awesome power of time reversal
Hit
Turn ends (level 4)
Ripost as someone runs up, hit
My turn, critical miss, again, nope, awesome power of time reversal
They cycle through their turns, still alive
Miss, nope, time reversal
One attacks me, critical miss
I ripost, critical miss
That's 4 critica misses in the first 13 attacks, 2 by me.
Next cycle round through them, one does two critical misses in a row.
Hit, miss
Next cycle round, 4 left, 2 of them do a critical miss
Me, critical miss, nope-ing time reversal
Hit
Go-round, a few hits and misses
Me, hit
Go-round, 3 left, 2 arrow hits, mitigated by the gloves, one critical miss
Me, miss (2)
Go-round, miss miss miss
Me, critical miss
Go-round, miss hit hit
Me, miss (4, I need a 5 to hit with my bonuses)
Go-round, critical miss, miss, miss
Go-round, hit, miss, miss
Me, hit (down to 2)
Go-round, miss, hit, one runs away, me critical miss on opportunity attack
Me, miss 3
Go-round, miss, hit
Me, miss 4 (need 5 now that oil of accuracy has worn off)
Go-round, miss, miss
Me, hit
Go-round, miss, miss
Me, critical miss
Go-round, miss, miss
Me, critical miss
Go-round, miss, miss
Me, critical miss
Go-round, miss, hit (gloves mitigate)
Me, miss, 2
Go-round, miss, miss
Me, critical miss
Go-round, miss, miss
Me, miss, 3
Go-round, miss, critical miss
Me, hit, down to 1
Go-round, hit
Me, hit
Go-round, miss
Me, hit, fight over


By my count, including reloads and their swings, that's 18 critical misses in 82 swings. The stats on this are disturbing.

Playing "Brutal" mod difficulty, both sides swing with disadvantage. Chance of a critical miss with disadvantage is 1 - chance of not a crit, which is 1 - (19/20 * 19/20) = 0.0975, or a little less than 10%.

I thought I'd try Google AI for the fun of it:

Chance of a 0.0975 event occuring 18 times in 82 tries

AI Overview The chance of an event with a 0.0975 probability occurring exactly 18 times in 82 tries is approximately 0.0522% (or 1 in 1,914). If you are looking for the probability of the event occurring 18 or more times, the chance is approximately 0.0806% (or 1 in 1,240).

"About 18" would be a little more likely still. Regardless, even that is wayyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy out of the realm of reasonable chance. Again, this is all the freaking time.


Any explanations? Or does the code have an Exciting-i-nator Engine?


What a pretty graph from AI!
[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]

Last edited by Shadowbart; Yesterday at 11:43 PM.