But there needs to be something more than just random guessing. Player needs to feel that outcome is not just random, but with benefit of hindsight player needs to feel that it makes some sense. Like if player chooses to be the hero who goes save someone even when we are told there is no time, then it should have consequences. Player has knowingly taken a risk, so they understand why it would have consequences. Player would not know if it happens, or what happens, but they can understand why it would happen.
....
This is a great idea! Could also have something where frightened people attacked by third party also attacks you, but its out of fear and panic and once the main threat has been dealt with, you might be able to reason with them.
Yes, I like that!
Maybe also some companions always choose more pessimistic alternatives and/or vise versa, if you not try to persuade them otherwise it might be a unhealthy spiral?
And navigate among superstition and conspiracy rumors. Maybe one solution is to follow an old complicated puzzle that might give the right result, or take a more scientific shortcut that may turn locals against you.