Larian Studios Forums Baldur's Gate III Baldur's Gate III - Technical & Gameplay Problems The game cheats on the D20 rolls

I am savescumming Lae'zel against Flind, using a +1 crossbow. According to the mouse hover over, I have a 45% chance to hit. Given her +4 bonuses, her roll is 5 to 24. Flind is 16 AC, this checks out for 45% hit.

But I savescummed 7 misses in a row before I hit.

Simple probability says the chance of 7 misses in a row would be the chance of miss to the 7th power, or 0.55 * 0.55 * 0.55 * 0.55 * 0.55 * 0.55 * 0.55, or about a 1.5% chance of that. (Yes, I turned off karmic dice, and I see the irony it might have made a hit earlier.)

Lae'zel doesn't suck, the gods suck. It just seems like she sucks.

Lae'zel is currently 1-on-1 a simple hyena in that fight. I am savescumming, playing around with her ripost.

The hyena has AC 11, and +4, so 5-24. Lae'zel is AC 15, and +5, so 6-25.

Anyway, the hyena has hit Lae'zel 6 times now, so no Ripost. Lae'zel has gotten in 2 riposts on rare misses by the hyena, both were misses.

The goal is to keep savescumming as a test until the hyena misses and Lae'zel hits with the ripost. 8 tries so far, 6 hits by hyena, 2 misses whereupon Lae'zel misses with the ripost.

Let that sink in. A creature with lower attack is making way more hits on AC 15 than Lae'zel is making on its 11 AC.

The numbers rolled change, so it's not like it's some RNG stored on the save I am constantly reloading.

9 hits by hyena now, and counting.

10, and no, the hyena does not have advantage nor does Lae'zel have disadvantage.


11th time's the charm! The hyena missed, and Lae'zel's 3rd ripost hits.

Ding dong, the 1 hp remaining hyena is dead.

In short, the hyena's attack on Lae'zel is only +1 different from Lae'zel's attack on Flind, yet it had a near constant stream of hits, 8 of 10, while Lae'zel kept wiffing on Flind.

This math does not add up.

We are playing a game of decision theory, working on beloved D&D D20 rules the uncaring universe operates on, while the universe is playing game theory, where the universe works against you.

Next turn is Tav, hunter shoots arrows at her, her AC is 17.

hit hit hit downed
savescum
hit hit hit downed, this time I check, 16, 17, 18
miss miss hit, not downed, turn is over

I never bothered to actually check ...
But the feeling that dices in this game are rigged was on my mind since first day of EA. :-/

Last week ... i tryed solo honor run with Lae'zel ...
1v1 with that Barbarian in Dark Crypt ...
Level 3 ... 22 AC ... enemy had disadvantage ...
Felt quite confident ...
He got 3 crittical hits in a row, every single one of them for at least 20 hp. -_-

I just went through the hassle to get the Silver Sword for Lae'zel, and gave it to her, then triggered the scene I went to camp to sleep.

Lae'zel wanted to kill me to prevent transformation. I saved and for the heck of it let her. Not game over, but she then goes on a rampage in camp, first at Shadowheart.

Miss
Miss
Shadowheart's turn, I mis-click, triggering an attack of opportunity
Also miss. With the Silver Sword.

Sigh.

Lae'zel with Silver Sword and hill giant strength has 50% of hitting Raphael to get his armor.

52 misses
39 hits to finish the deed
==
91 swings

As far as I can tell, that's about a 1 in 10 chance to do that poorly. Not impossible, but I wonder if that's about average, which, by definition, it shouldn't be. I lead off with a 0 and 5 streak, btw, again suggesting frontloading of bad rolls.

I'm not gonna hover over every swing to look at the raw rolls, but that would be interesting. Is there a way to save the combat log, with breakout of details (not just the text from the scroll, i.e. also save the data shown by hover over.)